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U.S.-China Climate Pact: What’s Fact and What’s Fiction

The planet’s two biggest climate polluters signed a surprise deal last week vowing to slash greenhouse gases and boost renewables. The U.S.-China climate agreement has been called everything from a historic game-changer to a status-quo-pushing smokescreen. We drill down for some perspective.

What’s the deal? 

The good: the U.S. agreed to slash its greenhouse gas emissions by 26 to 28 per cent below 2005 levels by 2025 (that means doubling the pace of carbon reduction over previous targets). China pledged to stop growing greenhouse gas emissions and to make sure that 20 per cent of its energy mix comes from zero-emission sources by 2030. That means it’s got to build 8,000 to 10,000 megawatts of zero-emissions energy – more than the energy produced by all its coal plants now, which is saying a lot.

The bad: the deal is non-binding. And that zero-emissions energy target for China includes nuclear.

What are environmentalists saying?

Most are praising the agreement but are clear that the pact should definitely be seen as a floor, not a ceiling. Friends of the Earth International’s Dipti Bhatnagar praised China for taking climate change more seriously, but called the U.S. pledge a “drop in the ocean.”

Is China getting off easy? 

Republicans south of the border have slammed the deal, saying it’ll hamstring the U.S. economy while allowing China’s to grow unfettered for another 15 years. But observers say some unprecedented cutting and shifting will have to be done pre-2030 for China to keep growing its developing economy and start reversing its GHG emissions. Says World Resources Institute climate director Jennifer Morgan: “China’s pledge to increase non-fossil-fuel energy and peak emissions around 2030 as early as possible is a major development and reflects a shift in its position from just a few years ago.” But she adds that China’s emissions really need to peak before 2030 to “limit the worst consequences of climate change.”

Can President Obama pull this off? 

By not signing a formal treaty, Obama bypassed the need for approval from a now Republican-dominated Senate. However, making the moves needed to follow through on his pledge will be a tall order, given Republicans’ vow to undermine and undo them. He’ll have to be creative if he wants climate action woven into his legacy.

Where the hell is Stephen Harper in all this? 

Pressure is mounting both inside and outside Canada for the PM to deliver greenhouse gas reduction targets for this country’s unregulated oil and gas sector. Word is, Obama was leaning on all G20 leaders to address climate change at last week’s summit in Australia. Harper took to the mic to offer some vaguely assuaging PR, telling the press he was happy to see China agree to tackle its emissions and that he’d contribute an unspecified sum to the Green Climate Fund for developing countries. He said Canada “will be part of an international agreement of binding obligations by all emitters.”

Will Harper actually act?

Don’t hold your breath for his version of a “China surprise” with a promise to cap and reverse tar sands emissions. Still, enviros say Harper’s excuses for inaction are running out. “Canada has long justified its own failures to limit the growth of greenhouse gas emissions by pointing to the inaction of heavy emitters like the U.S. and China.” But that excuse, says Pembina Institute’s Chris Severson-Baker, no longer stands. 

What will the U.S.-China deal mean for next year’s global climate conference? 

“[It’s a] huge political shot in the arm,” says Greenpeace Canada’s Keith Stewart. All this high-profile climate talk from the U.S. and China is a major energizer for next year’s Paris negotiations on a post-2020 global climate deal, he says. Fingers crossed it inspires a binding deal.

ecoholic@nowtoronto.com | @ecoholicnation

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