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Daniel Day-Lewis (left) will take the best-actor Oscar, but Lincoln could lose to Argo.
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Jennifer Lawrence’s best actress will recognize Silver Linings Playbook, and Anne Hathaway (right) has had best supporting actress in her back pocket since the day Les Misérables started shooting.
THE 85TH ACADEMY AWARDS Sunday (February 24), 8:30 pm, on CTV.
Remember when the Oscar nominations were announced last month and everyone was figuring Lincoln had it locked down?
Yeah, me too. But it looks like Argo is pulling a Driving Miss Daisy on the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, its lack of a best-director nomination for Ben Affleck serving as a catalyst for voter sympathy and massive outpourings of support.
The movie's collecting statuettes left and right: the American Film Institute Awards, the BAFTAs, the Golden Globes, both the producers and directors guild prizes. It'll almost be a bigger story if Argo doesn't win best picture Sunday night. Only the absence of a director nod made it look like a long shot in the first place - the movie's combination of political thriller and Hollywood comedy should have been catnip to the Academy.
Here's how to tell if Argo has best picture locked down: if Chris Terrio's script beats Lincoln's for best adapted screenplay, that's the game; if Tony Kushner wins for Lincoln, that means voters checked off Steven Spielberg's Lincoln in every category. (And if Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin take the prize for Beasts Of The Southern Wild, drink everything in the house, because all bets are off.)
Beyond that? Well, the film with the most nominations is usually a safe bet to win prizes, which suggests Lincoln will take the actor, supporting actor, director and a handful of technical prizes.
Jennifer Lawrence's best actress will recognize Silver Linings Playbook, and Anne Hathaway has had best supporting actress in her back pocket since the day Les Misérables started shooting.
So, yeah, predictions predicted. These aren't the winners I'd necessarily have chosen - that'd be a very different list - but they're the ones I think the Academy will pick.
NOW's Oscar coverage continues with real-time Twitter commentary Sunday night; follow @nowtoronto for every precious burst of vitriol and disbelief. See you there!