It may surprise observers that it’s George Smitherman who stands to lose the most from John Tory’s decision to stay out of the mayoral race.
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But let’s think about it for a second.
Certainly, Tory would have been a formidable force, but with Rob Ford vowing to fight on even if Tory decided to throw his hat in the ring, the chances of a vote split in Smitherman’s favour would have been greater.
With Tory in the race, the right-of-centre vote could have been split four ways, between Tory, Ford, Rocco Rossi and Sarah Thomson, although it’s unlikely Thomson would have been able to stay in the race.
Under those conditions and with Joe Pantalone firmly holding down the left, there was arguably more hay to be made in the political centre, Smitherman’s natural constituency, if Tory had joined the race.
Crazy? Maybe. Polls suggest Tory was miles ahead of his competition, so there would have been no danger of the kind of four-way vote splitting I’m describing.
But those poll numbers assume Tory would have acquitted himself well, when history shows he’s not above the odd fatal stumble. Polls can’t account for the unforeseeable. Election campaigns are fluid things, and can turn just like that on a gaffe or a few ill-advised words.
There’s also the Ford factor to consider. Word on the street is that he’s polling considerably ahead any of his opponents in the burbs, the voters Tory would have been counting on, too. Smitherman’s base is downtown.
Interestingly, the Pantalone camp was the only one hinting at welcoming a run by Tory. A statement co-signed by Pants and campaign chair John Laschinger after Tory announced his decision said, “Whichever decision [Tory] made in the end could only have been the right one.”
Of course, being the lone candidate on the left, Pants, too, would have liked nothing better than another conservative clogging up the right.
