The latest poll numbers are in, and they suggest that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Brownface/Blackface shame hasn’t dimmed Liberal electoral prospects all that much. Well, maybe. It depends which polls you believe.
Angus Reid, which can’t be blamed for being Liberal friendly, polled Canadians in the aftermath of the Brownface/Blackface controversy. According to them, the Libs have lost some ground to the Greens and NDP among young voters. But among voters who identify as racialized, the Grits still hold a slight lead over the Conservatives. Moreover, Angus Reid reports that Liberal party leader Trudeau has not given up any ground to Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer on the question of who voters prefer to be prime minister.
Also, the Grits still hold a 12-point lead in Quebec, while Scheer’s personal popularity overall appears to have remained static.
Angus Reid, suggests the Conservatives are not seeing any measurable gains, despite the weight of scandal handing over Trudeau’s chances. One statement in particular sticks out in Angus Reid’s analysis: “Andrew Scheer remains unable to persuade voters unhappy with Trudeau to look at the CPC.”
In other words, he’s not exactly capturing the imagination of Canadians.
No one expected fire and brimstone from Scheer. He’s too milquetoast for that. Let’s also not forget that it’s his first national campaign as leader. But as steady as his poll numbers have been, it’s safe to say Scheer is not yet resonating with voters outside his base. And he’s going to need a few of those if he hopes to prevent Trudeau from another majority.
Conventional wisdom is that Scheer is going to have to poll at 36 per cent or thereabouts – and maybe as high as 40 per cent nationally – to win a minority. He’s been consistently at around 32 per cent – which is to say that his support has a ceiling.
The problem for the Conservatives is that their support is heavily concentrated in the Prairies. The only other significant support is in Ontario, where Scheer’s buddy Doug Ford, the second most unpopular premier in the history of the province, just announced he’d be axing 10,000 teaching jobs over the next five years.
For Scheer, there are some seats in BC and Atlantic Canada to win from the Liberals, but the party is mostly nowhere in Quebec, where they are battling with the Bloc for second place. Liberal support is similarly regionalized, but more concentrated in the vote-rich provinces of Ontario and Quebec, where the most seats are up for grabs.
While the Brownface/Blackface controversy seems to have added to questions some voters have about Trudeau’s authenticity, Scheer’s problem is more one of transparency.
He’s not exactly slippery, but the nice guy routine – in contrast to some of the rabid elements around him – isn’t quite cutting it. That’s partly because Scheer seems to have a problem telling the truth.
A little of that political animal in him is coming through. That’s what happens when you’ve spent pretty much the entirety of your adult life in politics.
When Scheer was asked on Friday, for example, if he would be attending any of the Global Climate Strike events across the country, he went on the defensive suggesting he couldn’t attend any of the events because, well, he’d be in Vancouver. Maybe he didn’t know there was a march in Vancouver.
But just as with his earlier responses on his reasons for never attending a Pride parade, he was being disingenuous. Now it appears that Scheer has been misleading the public about his credentials.
Scheer claims to have worked as an insurance broker before he got his start in politics. But not according to the Globe. It turns out Scheer has never had a licence to sell insurance. He tried to skate around questions about that over the weekend. Small matter, perhaps, except he wants to be PM – and it’s his party that has been making a big deal that Trudeau is not what he appears to be.
Granted, the nature of the transgressions being leveled at Trudeau is more serious. But the truth is, there are other parts of his resume Scheer would like to paper over, including his time working for former Canadian Alliance MP Larry Spencer. Kicked out of the party in 2003 for calling for a ban on homosexuality, Spencer has come out of the woodwork recently to say in a Huffington Post interview that, as far as he knows, Scheer shares his view. (The Scheer campaign has denied the claim.)
Disparaging remarks Scheer is alleged to have made to Indigenous leaders during a meeting in his riding during the 2004 election have also made the rounds on social media.
Seems like ages ago now, but before the old Trudeau photos blew up, Scheer was having what can only be described as one of the worst opening weeks in recent Canadian electoral history, with all those questions about the alleged homophobes and racists in his midst.
He finds himself in a no-man’s-land now that voters seemed to have moved past Brownface/Blackface.
There’s still lots of movement going on in the crucial 905 area. But if the poll numbers portend anything it’s that this election a) may have to get uglier for the Cons to win, and b) we may be headed for a Liberal minority – barring any further scandals (it bears mentioning) – and possibly another election in June.
Make no mistake: the hate-on for Trudeau among Conservatives is visceral. And there are reportedly still a number of embarrassing photos of the Liberal leader in costume floating around out there – not to mention allegations Trudeau made racist remarks during the Parliament Hill shooting in 2014.
The frat boys behind Scheer are dying to go for the jugular. That might be a tricky proposition for the Cons. But Scheer could be headed for another 2015 where the Liberals won 33 ridings by five or fewer points.
And the last thing he wants is for the Conservatives to be on the outside looking in again. Stay tuned. It looks like we’re in store for an October surprise.
@enzodimatteo
