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Canada Election 2021: Justin Trudeau can’t afford another week like the last one

It’s supposed to be the most consequential election in a long time.

But a week into Canada Election 2021, it’s been mostly a disappointment for the governing Liberals. Team Trudeau seems oddly out of step. 

An election that was supposed to be defined by the big issues of the day, in particular, the government’s response to the COVID crisis, has been dominated instead by news from Afghanistan and forest fires burning out of control in BC and Northern Ontario. 

The Libs have stumbled out of the blocks, struggling to generate any enthusiasm. Maybe it’s the absence of Trudeau’s beard that’s failing to lend gravitas to the proceedings. Instead, the early days of the campaign have been marked by a seeming lack of urgency on the Liberals’ part and unflattering images of Trudeau being dogged by anti-vax protestors.

It’s going to take more than the slogans of 2019 to rouse Canadians from their pandemic stupor. Most of them didn’t want an election to begin with. But here we are….

It was never going to be a cakewalk for Trudeau, even with the massive goodwill created by the payouts handed out by the government to get us through the pandemic. But it’s hard to escape the sense that not everyone in the party has their hearts in this one – at least, so far. Some party insiders are even using the c-word, as in complacency, to describe a general malaise around the election.

Trudeau’s critics in the conservative press have been quick to pounce. They’re calling his bid for a majority after two years of a minority rule a “vanity project.” Like most opinions of Trudeau in the conservative press, it’s over the top. But the sentiment seems to be having some resonance.

Numbers released by polling firm Ekos this weekend show the Cons eking ahead of the Libs. It’s the first poll to show the Cons ahead of this election. More to the point, it’s the first poll of any kind in months to have the Cons ahead since Erin O’Toole took over as party leader. Ontario may be back in play for the Conservatives, which seems counterintuitive given the mess Ford has made of the pandemic. The Ekos numbers could be an anomaly. 

O’Toole’s gang has problems of their own, not the least of which is a divided party. 

The challenge from the Maverick Party in the party’s base in Alberta seems to have subsided. The party only received official status last week and is running a fraction of the candidates they planned in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

But the seamier elements in the Con base that harbour racist, sexist and misogynist views remain an albatross for O’Toole. The party’s campaign materials, for example, fail to mention what the party would do to combat racism and Islamophobia.

Then there’s the Cons’ proximity to the anti-vaccine crowd. Trudeau has already signalled his intention to make the Cons’ opposition to mandatory vaccines an issue.

But he’s left himself open to an attack from the left on the bigger issue so far during the campaign. That’s on the climate file, where NDP leader Jagmeet Singh is making hay tying the Liberals’ bailout of the TransCanada pipeline project to Indigenous issues. The Liberals’ push and pull on the climate file may be catching up to them with the electorate. Too many words, not enough climate action, so to speak.

On Monday, the NDP leader went further, promising to end subsidies to oil and gas companies. Like the legalization of weed for Trudeau in 2015, Singh is trying to find himself a niche with younger eco-conscious voters. Maybe the TikTok generation is paying attention. 

The NDP leader continues to rate high in likability among Canadians. But turning likeability into votes is another matter. Singh also enjoyed high personal approval ratings during the last election, only to see the NDP lose seats. 

For Trudeau, a lot is riding on the middle class, which is why the party was busy signing child-care agreements with most of the provinces and territories in the weeks before the election.

Elections can’t be won in the first week, but they can certainly be lost. The situation may not be that dire for the Libs. They’re still ahead in most polls. Besides, it can be argued that many Canadians are still in the throes of summer. Most of them won’t begin to pay attention to the election in a serious way until school starts, and that won’t be for another two weeks. The English-language leaders’ debate isn’t until September 9, a little more than a week before the vote. Perhaps it was the Liberals’ plan all along to sleepwalk through this one.

We’ve seen a similar trajectory before in 2015, with early campaign questions. Trudeau ended up winning a majority. Party insiders are not ready to push the panic button just yet. He’s still the preferred pick for PM among voters.

But for a government that’s been at the helm through Canada’s biggest crisis since the Second World War, Trudeau has been decidedly underwhelming. He can’t afford another week like the last one. 

@enzodimatteo

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