Liberal leader Justin Trudeau – A test of truth
Going for him
• Quebec and Ontario (to a lesser extent). The Libs are projected to lose seats in BC, the Prairies and Atlantic Canada, but if they can hold onto the country’s most populous provinces (and a few seats in the Maritimes), they’ve got a chance of returning a majority. The key is Ontario. Lose more than seven seats here and we’re in minority government territory.
• Some of the shine may have come off the Trudeau brand but he’s still the preferred choice for prime minister in a had-to-head with Andrew Scheer.
• Ability to connect with voters – those who love him really love him.
• “Liberal Twitter” – the army on social media always ready to flip the switch on right-wing trolls who are already feeding the fever machine with the #TrudeauMustGoToJail hashtag.
Going against him
• Questions of authenticity. Trudeau sold himself as a different kind of politician during the 2015 campaign. A few broken promises later (his reversal on electoral reform stands out), women and young people who voted for him in large numbers are less willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
• Vote-splitting in key 905 ridings in Ontario. The Cons under Harper won a majority on the strength of a mere 3,500 votes nationwide in 2011.
• Blowback over SNC-Lavalin affair. The polls tell us the general public is over it, but the controversy will mean a loss of votes in Indigenous communities, particularly in BC, where approval of the Trans Mountain pipeline is another hot button.
Key battlegrounds
905, 519, 613 and 705 area codes in Ontario, including ridings in Peterborough, North York, Milton, Guelph, Kitchener-Waterloo, Niagara, London and Windsor.
Major campaign planks
Climate change, pharmacare, First Nations, rental housing, opioid crisis, women and girls.
Electoral prospects
Barring a scandal, pretty good. Polls show Trudeau slightly ahead. He was as much as eight points behind Scheer nationally in February.
Harman Dulay
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh – On a knife’s edge
Going for him
• It’s not all doom and gloom for Singh. The NDP is the second choice for 42 per cent of current Liberal voters and 38 per cent of current Green voters.
• First racialized person to be elected federal leader. It still carries cachet in ethnic communities.
• Now he’ll be given a platform to show Canadians what he’s got.
Going against him
• Waiting more than a year after assuming the party leadership to find a seat to run in so he could sit in the House. In hindsight, it was a mistake. Singh is just now beginning to feel comfortable with his caucus.
• Collapsing vote in Quebec. No more Orange Crush, with the Dippers polling at around 15 per cent in la belle province. Current estimates have the party losing as many as a dozen seats to the Libs there. Quebec’s law banning religious symbols in the civil service is not helping.
• Time. The party is still scrambling to fill its slate of candidates. Former Ontario Federation of Labour president Sid Ryan described the nomination process for candidates as “a shambles,” before announcing he would not be seeking the Oshawa nomination. Other nomination battles, most notably Parkdale-High Park, have been characterized by infighting.
• Elements in his own party. His support has flatlined since he won the leadership, in particular among the party’s working-class hardcore, who are just as likely to vote Conservative.
Key battlegrounds
Ethnic enclaves in Brampton, Mississauga and Scarborough, BC’s Lower Mainland, downtown Winnipeg.
Major campaign planks
Pharmacare (which the Libs have co-opted) expanded medicare affordable housing lower cellphone bills federal incentives for electric cars.
Electoral prospects
Singh looked like he was waving the white flag when he said the NDP would not prop up a Conservative minority. Most read that as the NDP acknowledging they had no chance of winning. Lately, the NDP leader has been spending a lot of time in Toronto to shore up downtown support. The party won seats here in the last provincial election, but it looks like a salvage mission more than anything else right now.
Green party leader Elizabeth May – Looking greener by the day
Going for her
• May is the most popular federal leader, according to Angus Reid’s poll in late August. But an equal number of Canadians have an unfavourable view of her.
• Climate change. It looks to be a major issue this election – especially if the Liberals begin to lose progressives.
• The defection of some 14 former NDP provincial candidates in New Brunswick into the Green fold (sorta).
Going against her
• A number of gaffes right out of the blocks. From the hiring (and firing) of former Liberal attack dog Warren Kinsella to May’s statement that the party won’t stop its members from reopening the abortion debate (she has since backtracked on that), the Greens have looked, well, green. Even the defections in New Brunswick ended up falling flat – half of the 14 former Dippers announced they were returning to the NDP. Some said their names were used without their knowledge.
Key battlegrounds
Burnaby, Nanaimo-Ladysmith (which was won by the Greens from NDP in a by-election in May and looks vulnerable) and Guelph area.
Major campaign planks
Sustainable jobs (ie: not in the oil sector) abolishing tuition for post-secondary education resource development in cooperation with First Nations small business food security eliminate poverty.
Electoral prospects
Despite the surge in national support the Greens will mostly be playing spoiler. Realistically there are only a handful of seats in play since most of the party’s support is concentrated in a handful of pockets, in particular Atlantic Canada. It’s May’s old stomping grounds and where the provincial wing of the party in PEI holds the balance of power after winning eight of 27 seats in the April provincial election.
People’s Party of Canada leader Maxime Bernier – Mad Max plays identity politics
Going for him
• He’s been able to find candidates to run in all 338 ridings.
Going against him
• A list too long to bother with here but let’s start with credibility problem. Has gone from Quebec separatist, to Con cabinet minister to supply management libertarian to far-right wingnut during his political career.
• Zero seats in the House means zero chance of getting in the leaders’ debates. Also, zero platform outside anti-immigrant, Muslim-baiting. So why are we even mentioning this clown? Because he was a hair’s breadth from winning the Conservative Party leadership in 2017, he’s polling at around five per cent. After all, Faith Goldy got 25,000 votes in the mayoral election pushing a similar platform. Bernier bears watching also because of how far right he will push Scheer if the Cons all of a sudden start sliding.
Key battlegrounds
Well, the PPC have Renata Ford, wife of the late former mayor Rob Ford, running in Etobicoke North, so there’s that. The Rhinoceros Party has put up a guy named Maxime Bernier to run against Maxime Bernier.
Major campaign planks
Ending official multiculturalism reducing immigration ending protections for refugee claimants deregulating health care you get the idea. Bernier has also been promoting ideas like the need for what he calls “social cohesion.” It’s code folks.
Electoral prospects
Bernier is in this fight for personal reasons, mostly to stick it to the Conservative Party, which he left after his failed leadership bid – because, he says, the party has “abandoned… its core conservative principles.”
@enzodimatteo
