COVID-19: All adults in Ontario can book vaccine appointments by May 24; Province could see 1,000 daily cases in June: Modelling

April 29, 2021Julia Mastroianni

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Ontario could see 1,000 cases a day by June: Modelling

4:30 pm New modelling projections from the Ontario science advisory table predict the province could drop down to 1,000 daily cases by June in the best case scenario, the table’s co-chair Adalsteinn Brown said during a press conference on Thursday.

However, the best case scenario modelled would require a shorter list of essential workplaces than currently open, an effective sick pay plan, lower mobility and a focus on vaccinating high-risk communities.

Brown added that Ontario is currently at a moderate level of reducing transmission rather than the best case scenario. He pointed to the sick pay program recently implemented by Premier Doug Ford’s government, which would give workers up to three paid sick days. He said the province will need an “effective” sick pay program, which would give workers up to 14 days of paid sick leave and would put the onus on employers for reimbursement, to bring the province up to the best case scenario modelling.

Modelling also showed high levels of workplace mobility, which would need to be reduced significantly through the closing of more non-essential businesses in order to reach the best case scenario. Retail and recreation mobility and transit mobility has decreased from its peak in March to January levels, he added.

Without these changes, the data shows the province will likely decrease to only about 2,500 daily cases in June before peaking once again to almost 5,000 cases by July.

Both moderate and best case scenario projections show that intensive care admissions will continue to rise for some time, remaining above the level necessary to restart surgeries. Currently, the surgery backlog is at a high of 257,536 cases.

Brown also highlighted the prevalence of variants of concern in Ontario, which are responsible for over 90 per cent of cases, almost all of which are B117 cases.

The new report from the advisory table also cleared up some questions about outdoor transmission, noting that masking outdoors is generally not necessary if you can keep the recommended two metre distance from those outside of your household. If keeping that distance is not possible, masks should be worn.

Overall, Brown expressed being “hopeful” about the third wave “cresting,” though he emphasized that Ontarians can’t be tempted to relax or the province will risk a fourth wave.

All adults eligible to book vaccine appointments by week of May 24: Elliott

1:40 pm All people over age 18 will be able to book a COVID-19 vaccine appointment by May 24, Health Minister Christine Elliott said today.

During a press briefing at Queen’s Park, Elliott laid out a timetable for when vaccine eligibility will expand as vaccine supply from Ottawa increases “dramatically” in May.

First, the province will increase the supply of COVID-19 vaccines to hot spot communities by over one million doses starting next week. Fifty per cent of supply will go to dedicated to hot spot communities on the weekends of May 3 and 10. Those shots will be delivered by mobile teams, pop-up clinics, mass immunization sites, hospital, primary care physicians and pharmacies.

Every adult living in 114 hot-spot postal codes will be eligible to book appointments by May 3.

“This targeted, time-limited approach is designed to reduce COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths in our most at-risk communities,” Elliott said. “We will not be taking away vaccines from other public health regions. Their allocations will remain the same as previously planned and will increase later in May.”

As of April 30 at 8 am, the province is lowering the age of eligibility to book appointments via the provincial system to 55 and up, Ontario-wide.

In the week of May 3, the age will lower again to 50 and up. In the week of May 10, the age will lower to 40 and up and in the week of May 17 it will lower to age 30 and up. All adults over 18 will be eligible to book via the provincial system in the week of May 24.

Also on April 30, the province will launch a pilot project in hot spot areas that will see eight pharmacies in Toronto and Peel administer Pfizer vaccines to people age 55 and up. Each location will receive around 150 doses per week, the government said in a statement.

The province expects to expand Pfizer availability via pharmacies to additional public health units later in May. Pharmacies will continue using their own booking systems for these appointments.

Ontario's vaccine eligibility timeline — Government of Ontario

Ontario reports 3,871 new COVID-19 cases, 41 deaths

Ontario is reporting 3,871 new cases of COVID-19 on April 29 and 41 deaths, the highest daily death toll the province has seen since February 19.

The province detected 3,480 new cases on Wednesday, 3,265 on Tuesday and 3,510 on Monday. The seven-day average increased for the first time in over a week from 3,783 to 3,810.

Ontario completed 56,939 tests in the past 24 hours, marking a 7.6 per cent positivity rate.

The province has now surpassed the five million mark of vaccine doses administered, with an additional 120,567 vaccine doses administered in the past day to bring the provincial total to 5,027,770, along with 368,403 people fully vaccinated.

Active cases have gone down slightly again, from 38,853 to 38,438. Hospitalizations have dropped slightly as well to 2,248, down almost 45 from the day before. However, intensive care admissions are still on the rise, reaching 884 patients today and 620 patients on ventilators.

Of the deaths reported today, two were people between the ages of 20 and 39 and four were people between the ages of 40 and 59.

Variants of concern seem to be picking up speed, with the troubling P1 and B1351 variants now at cumulative case counts of 501 and 243, respectively. There is a cumulative case count of 62,944 B117 cases in Ontario.

To date, the province has seen 459,477 total COVID-19 cases, and 8,029 deaths.