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COVID-19: Ontario science table releases targets to avoid fall lockdown

A sign outlines coronavirus measures in a store window in Toronto

The vaccination rate must rise “substantially above” 85 per cent in Ontario to avoid a fall lockdown, the province’s COVID-19 science advisory table said.

In data modelling released on Wednesday afternoon, the province’s science advisors predict a “substantial” Delta variant-driven fourth wave that could lead to daily cases passing 9,000 in the worst-case scenario.

“We do not expect to see the same proportion of severely ill cases in the vaccinated,” the group said in a science brief. “Among the unvaccinated, we do expect to see a rapid increase in the number of seriously ill people needing hospital care as workplaces and education reopen in September.”

The science advisors say residents must reduce contacts to about 70 per cent of pre-pandemic levels until vaccination is high enough to avoid a lockdown.

To do that, the table recommends measures that reduce indoor density, maintain physical distancing and limit large gatherings, plus continuing indoor masking policies, working from home and implementing policies that accelerate vaccination, such as outreach and vaccine mandates.

“The fourth wave will affect all age groups with the potential to exceed ICU capacity,” the table said.

In the best-case scenario laid out in the brief, the public health measures would lead daily new infections to fall below 500 by October. The mid-range scenario would see cases climb to around 4,000 per day by October 1, close to the third-wave peak.

The current seven-day average for new infections in Ontario is 701. Ontario remains in step 3 of the reopening plan.

The table released the brief hours after Premier Doug Ford announced a vaccine passport system that is due to take effect on September 22.

To date, 83.7 per cent of the eligible population 12 and up have had one dose of COVID-19 vaccine and 77 per cent are fully immunized. The majority of new cases and hospitalizations are in unvaccinated people, public health officials have said.

The brief, which notes Ontario is faring better in the fourth wave than other jurisdictions such as the UK and the U.S., notes that the risk of hospital and ICU admission with the Delta variant is two to three times higher compared with the original COVID-19 virus.

Without control measures, the brief notes, one infected person is likely to spread the virus to six to eight people.

“Why are we doing better than U.S., UK, Alberta and BC?” the table said in a tweet. “Because we’re not just relying on vaccine. We’re also keeping public health measures in place. We can lose that edge very quickly.

The science advisors say vaccination “continues to be highly effective,” and notes the unvaccinated are 30 times more likely to wind up in the hospital and 48 more times more likely to be admitted in the ICU than vaccinated people.

“If we cannot reduce transmission and accelerate vaccination, ICU occupancy could exceed wave 3 by October,” the document states.

@nowtoronto

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