Events in Egypt are sizzling hot this moment, as the world waits to see if Hosni Mubarak is immediately stepping down.
Wednesday saw mass walkouts – from doctors to public transit workers – and the flooding, yet again of Cairo’s Tahrir Square with tens of thousands. Hour by hour, the landscape changes.
Human Rights watch is struggling to add up the number of those disappeared by the military and torture reports are flooding in. Will there be a military coup and how far are the joyous protesters in the Square from their democracy dream? We tap the experts.
“The cameras love demonstrations, but they are frequently not the real story.What is going on now is a struggle within the military, between generations, for the future of the Egyptian military and therefore the heart of the Egyptian regime. Mubarak will leave, the younger officers will emerge, the constitution will make some changes and life will continue.”
GEORGE FRIEDMAN, Stratfor. Read it all here.
“Egyptian Organization for Human Rights activist Ghada Shahbandar estimates that the crowd in downtown Cairo is up to 20 percent female. Others have put the number much higher, at 50 percent. Whether their faces are framed by tightly wrapped black scarves pinned neatly to billowing abayas or by an unruly sweep of curls, these women have found the very streets where sexual harassment and relentless stalking once ran rampant suddenly transformed into safe havens, even amid the violence.”
BEENISH AHMED, Foreign Policy in Focus. Read it all here.
“Those who were expecting a quick victory are no doubt disappointed, but successful People Power movements have usually been protracted. It took nearly a decade between the first strikes in the Gdansk shipyards and the fall of Communism in Poland Chile’s democratic struggle against the Pinochet regime took three years. It took ten weeks in East Germany during the fall of 1989 before the Berlin Wall came down. Indeed, the pro-democracy movement in Tunisia took nearly a month, and they are still struggling.”
STEVEN ZUNES, professor of politics and international studies, University of San Francisco, Common Dreams. Read it all here.
“I’m less critical of Barack Obama than are some other supporters of the democracy movement in Egypt. True, he has bumbled along confusedly for the past two weeks. And true, he has apparently reconciled himself to the perpetuation of the power of the Egyptian military establishment. I’m unclear what else the U.S. can do. Some suggest Obama can halt U.S. military aid to Egypt. This can backfire spectacularly, as the case of Pakistan reveals when the U.S. suspended its military relationship with Islamabad’s generals only to come crawling back, hat in hand, in 2001.”
ROBERT DREYFUSS, The Nation. Read it here.
“Yes, democracy in Egypt poses a threat…to al Qaeda. The type of government al Qaeda wants would be anathema to most Egyptians. Bin Laden could still turn this potential defeat into victory. If reform fails and a dictatorship continues, it vindicates his message that peaceful change cannot work. If the Brotherhood is excluded from power it may alienate young hotheads who might find al Qaeda’s call to arms compelling. Success in Egypt is vital not only for the well-being of the Egyptian people, but also to deal another blow to Bin Laden.”
DANIEL L. BYMAN, Brookings Institute. Read it here.
“One thing is certain: blowback – the unforeseen consequence of U.S. policies abroad – is a bitch. The U.S. paid little or no heed to the Egyptian dictatorship’s abuse of human rights, despite its role in radicalizing such terrorists as Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden’s operational and strategic commander. In fact, our strategy of rendition in the wake of 9/11 took advantage of Egypt’s torture cells.”
MICHAEL WINSHIP, Truthout. Read it here.
“Embattled Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, whose regime has received billions in U.S. aid, has been in the global media spotlight of late. Let’s take a look at the other dictators around the planet fortunate enough to be on Uncle Sam’s good side.
1. Paul Biya, Cameroon
2. Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov (or Berdymukhamedov), Turkmenistan
3. Teodoro Obiang Nguema, Equatorial Guinea
4. Idriss Deby, Chad
5. Islam Karimov, Uzbekistan
6. Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia
7. King Abdullah Bin Abdul-Aziz, Saudi Arabia.”
JOSHUA HOLLAND, Alternet
“Now with the whole world watching, Mubarak’s American and Soviet trained intelligence chief now presides over the “democratic transition” as Mubarak holds on. It’s always dangerous if you lose your compass amid the desert sands. But for the White House to lose its moral compass now is potentially catastrophic. A foreign exchange crisis lies ahead, as food prices keep rising. If the security police or the army turns Cairo’s streets into the Valley of the Dead, the harm to both Egypt and U.S. interests will be incalculable.”
THOMAS FERGUSON, Senior Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute, Alternet
“The crowds in Cairo’s Tahrir Square might be getting bigger, but they’re just too darned peaceful to hold our attention here on the other side of the world. Already, big news organizations are scaling back. Big crowds challenging a tyrannical regime might have been huge headlines last week. But in the news business, repetitive means non-newsworthy, unless the dictator flees, or the protesters somehow kick it up a notch, which is precisely what the world is congratulating them for not doing. It would appear that Hosni Mubarak and his cohort understand and are counting on that.”
NEIL MACDONALD, CBC. Read it here.
