Justin Trudeau: Following in his father’s footsteps
Let’s start from the top. His poll numbers are up since the election but much continues to be written about the PM’s future being uncertain after the Liberals fell short of a majority in September.
Some of the usual suspects among the Conservative party symps in the Ottawa press corps can’t let their, um, hate-on (?) for Trudeau go, offering that he won’t be leader when the next election rolls around, probably in two years’ time. It’s the three strikes and you’re out rule, or so the theory goes. Indeed, it’s like 100 years or something since a federal leader took a stab at a fourth election.
A number of possible replacements have been floated, the newest one among them being the new defence minister Anita Anand, along with Chrystia Freeland and others. This is how things usually work in Ottawa. The media starts beating the drums and before you know it, shit happens. Yup, there have been a number of notable exits from the PMO.
But the only way there will be a leadership review before the next election is if Trudeau decides to step down. And that doesn’t seem likely – especially with a divided opposition and another wave (or two) of the pandemic to manage. Other possible replacements have given every indication they are prepared to play the long game and bide their time.
If anything, the PM’s political trajectory seems on its way to mirroring his father’s, who lost the federal election in 1979 after a decade in power only to return to a majority a year later after a vote of non-confidence toppled Joe Clark’s PCs before there could be a Liberal leadership review.
Okay, it might not happen that way either; but it’s as good a theory as any given how Trudeau has managed to defy the odds pretty much every step of the way in his political career so far.
Jagmeet Singh: The NDP leader wears no clothes
The federal NDP leader is known for his snappy attire and likeable personality. Public opinion polls consistently show high approval ratings. But Canadians can’t seem to put the “x” next to his party’s candidates when it matters most – during elections.
The NDP has seen diminishing fortunes at the polls in every election since Jack Layton’s Orange Wave.
Singh hasn’t helped his cause with a number of policy missteps, including on pipelines and Indigenous issues, which he hung his reputation on in the last election. There have also been internal grumblings about the party resources being concentrated on selling the leader as opposed to party policy during the last runoff. Singh, it must be said, hasn’t always been the quickest on his feet. Can he win?
It seems increasingly unlikely the party will ever again reach the heights it did when Layton was leader, even with the Conservatives fraying under Erin O’Toole.
There was talk of an informal Liberal-NDP coalition shortly after the September election to avoid going to the polls again in short order. It seemed like a good chance for the NDP to use its leverage in parliament to win concessions from the Liberal minority and put the party in a position to present themselves as a viable option next time around, just like Layton did.
But that talk has since died down and is looking like another missed opportunity for Singh to grow the NDP.
Erin O’Toole: It’s a bloody mess
The Conservative party leader has been sinking faster than a stone in public opinion polls since the election, including among his own party members with the Cons in NDP territory at around 20 per cent in a November Nanos poll.
O’Toole has been able to head off challenges so far to questions around his leadership. But behind the scenes, the turmoil continues to brew even as the Conservative leader has seemingly consolidated his power in caucus.
But it’s a different story with the rank and file, as his waning favourability ratings among Canadians provide the opening his opponents need to push for a leadership review.
O’Toole, meanwhile, continues to play Jekyll and Hyde with the public, pushing hot buttons for the red-meat eaters among party faithful, while instructing his caucus to support the Liberals’ conversion therapy ban bill and softening the party’s stance on China after losing three seats in BC over the party’s anti-China obsessions. How long O’Toole can continue to play this game of risk is anybody’s guess.
O’Toole’s military background suggests there will be no surrender on his part – bunker mentality has already set in – in which case there will be a bloody mess for the Conservatives to clean up however this internal battle ends, with the PPC in all likelihood waiting to pick up the pieces.
Doug Ford: Now you see him, now you don’t
Ontario’s premier got his booster shot and then high-tailed it somewhere (nobody knows where) for the holidays after anti-vaxx protestors allegedly blocked him from getting into his house before Christmas.
Now there are missing-in-action posters of the premier floating around the internet (again). Every time the heat is on, Doug goes into hiding. It’s seemed to work for him so far.
Leger reports that he’s 10 points ahead of his nearest rivals, but that poll was conducted before Omicron entered the scene and made a mess of everyone’s Christmas holidays and the Ford government’s plans to coast to another election victory next spring.
Now Doug has his anti-vaxx daughter and Toronto cop son-in-law spreading COVID conspiracy theories on Instagram. It’s getting slippery for the premier.
And while the opposition NDP and Libs may be in disarray, Ford can’t afford to let his personal life start dominating headlines in the lead up to an election. While his handling of the pandemic has been widely condemned, outside of the GTA he remains more popular than his rivals. If he does have an Achilles’ heel, it’s any skeletons he’s got rattling around in his closet.
That’s clearly where the Liberals intend to go, revving up their “war room” on social media platforms in recent days with the suggestion Ford has ensconced himself in his Muskoka cottage. The Grits have also been beating the bushes for off-the-record conversations with reporters about the premier. This could get ugly, folks.
John Tory: Should I stay or should I go now?
The mayor was busy doing his grandfatherly duties over the holidays, as well as managing another wave of the pandemic. He posted a short video on Twitter on Monday in which he made like a unicorn for his granddaughter. Tory’s two terms as mayor have arguably been as blessed as the mythical creature.
He’s had to deal with his share of controversy, no doubt, especially on the policing file. But he remains widely popular, almost untouchable if there is such a thing in politics. It’s quite the turn for the former cable guy who couldn’t win for losing before he became mayor. The only question now is whether he’ll seek a third term.
The holiday season or early in the New Year of an election year has become the time when it’s customary for candidates for mayor to declare their intentions. And Tory had previously set the end of the year as a deadline. That’s changed.
The mayor’s wife’s well-publicized health issues were said to be the make-or-break in that decision. Still, it looked like Tory would run as recently as a few weeks ago with his communications team in overdrive in late summer. Tory still reportedly enjoys the job.
But with Omicron entering the mix and the pandemic seemingly set to be with us for the foreseeable future, the ground has shifted again. The job of the mayor is challenging under normal circumstances. The pandemic has turned it into a 24/7 affair for Tory. It’s taken a toll.
Tory seems in no hurry to declare his intentions, with zero in the way of potential opponents waiting in the wings to take him on. When the issue came up in year-end interviews, Tory said his focus right now is on the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 City budget. And that he’d now make his intentions known “well before” nominations open in May.
With Tory, there’s little sense that there’s unfinished business to attend to, which would make a decision to pull the plug not come as a complete surprise. Until then, the guessing game on his future looks like it will continue for some time.
