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John Torys budget bottom line doesn’t quite add up

Total size of the city’s operating budget, which will include $75 million in new investments, more than half of which, some $41 million, is for transit. TTC improvements will be accompanied by a 10 fare increase – “outrageous,” according to TTCriders’ Jessica Bell, who argues that Toronto passengers already pay more of the agency’s costs than users of any other major North American transit system.

Proposed property tax increase. Including the .5 per cent Scarborough subway levy, that’s 2.75 per cent, slightly higher than the rate-of-inflation increase Tory promised during the election. Increases that merely keep up with inflation don’t actually allow for more spending in real dollars, however. “The quality of services in Toronto is deteriorating,” says Councillor Gord Perks.

The proposed budget for repairing the Gardiner Expressway, an increase of $433.2 million so that work can be completed in 12 years instead of 20. That’s a lot of cash to blow on the highway, which only last year city staff said should probably be torn down. That $443.2 million could pay for two-thirds of the East Bayfront LRT, for example, or put a serious dent in the Toronto Community Housing repair backlog

Net police budget, a zero per cent increase from last year. But that’s not including the millions that will likely be tacked on once current contract talks with police are done. Speaking to reporters Tuesday, budget chair Gary Crawford said money has been set aside for the increase, but he could not say how much.

Revenue the city is counting on from the land transfer tax, the same amount it generated last year. In the past, city staff have been very conservative about estimating revenue from the tax. (In 2014 they lowballed it by $75 million.) They’re being less cautious this time, which could leave the city short if the housing market cools.

Repair backlog in Toronto Community Housing over the next 10 years. While the city previously committed to contributing $864 million, it is still hoping to secure the remaining two-thirds of the total cost from the provincial and federal governments. This budget has no new money from either. “Housing is still not funded the way it should be,” admits city manager Joe Pennachetti.

Amount indoor ice permit fees are being raised. While Tory has hung his political reputation on a promise not to raise taxes, fees for some city services will go up by many times the rate of inflation. Permits for special events and the city’s better sports fields will go up by as much as 12.25 per cent. Water rates are also being increased by 8 per cent.

Amount the city assumes it will receive from the province to partially reverse a $150 million cut in housing grants made by Queen’s Park in 2013. City staff made the bailout sound like a done deal, but Finance Minister Charles Sousa issued a statement saying the province has no intention of reversing the 2013 cut and has instead offered Toronto a $200 million “line of credit.” Meaning Tory’s budget isn’t as balanced as it looks.

New funding for anti-poverty initiatives, including $7.9 million for shelter services, which will pay for 181 additional shelter beds, including 54 spots in a new facility for LGBTQ youth. Councillor Pam McConnell, whom Tory has tapped to develop a poverty reduction strategy, says the new cash is a “first step towards addressing the causes of poverty” and “the base from which we will grow year after year.”

Average property tax paid in Toronto last year, which is still about $1,000 lower than the $4,242 average paid across the GTHA and Ottawa.

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