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Premier Doug Ford?


Ontario Progressive Conservative party members rejected moderate, experienced leadership and instead decided to put their faith in a right-wing populist by electing Doug Ford as their leader on the third ballot Saturday.

After one of the shortest leadership contests in Ontario history, featuring just two debates, party members cast their votes in a complicated electoral points system that resulted in Christine Elliott winning the popular vote and Ford winning the most points, similar to the Trump-Clinton election in the U.S. The debacle surrounding the announcement of the winner only added confusion.

Ford, the only male in the race to succeed former leader Patrick Brown, inherits a party that is deeply divided. The progressive side that was making inroads to broaden the party’s appeal under Brown has been swept aside.

Ford borrowed heavily on populist rhetoric to attract support. His campaign was short on policy and instead relied on his ability to deliver one liners. He focused on criticizing insiders, elites and government waste. Ford also played to the party’s social conservatives by talking about opening contentious issues such as forcing young women to seek parental permission before having an abortion.

As the first to declare the carbon tax, a key plank in the platform developed under Brown, dead, Ford was able to force the other candidates to adopt his position. Depending on whom you ask, this could blow a $4 to $16 billion hole in the PC platform. His answer to the funding shortfall is to find efficiencies at Queen’s Park, which is usually code for cuts to education, healthcare and the environment. 

Ford’s pro-business pronouncement that Ontario will be “open for business” under his watch, included a pledge to freeze the minimum wage, which is reminiscent of the nine years that the Harris Tories kept the minimum wage at $6.85.

In many ways Ford is living in a 1950s time warp where father knows best and manicured lawns have white picket fences. Today’s Ontario is quite different. 

While some observers were quick to write him off at first, he understood that federal Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer’s surprise victory relied on social conservatives. His embrace of Tanya Granic Allen’s views on the sex-ed curriculum endeared him to her voters to put him over the top.

But winning the leadership of a party and winning the province are two different things. Ford will need to broaden his appeal, especially among women and millennial voters who generally decide elections. He challenges Liberals in the vote rich Toronto area but this may be offset by some rural voters who see him as too Toronto-centric.

Ontario’s Liberals should not be rubbing their hands with glee. 

Ford and his team have been underestimated to the regret of their adversaries. His populist message has resonance with voters and Kathleen Wynne’s low approval ratings may prove a fatal mix. With less than 90 days until the election the Liberals will need to define Ford and what the ballot question should be, or we may be calling Doug Ford premier.

Marcel Wieder is president and chief advocate at Aurora Strategy Group.

news@nowtoronto.com | @nowtoronto

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