8 Toronto HarperCons who have got to go
Eglinton-Lawrence
It’s the race everyone’s watching. Incumbent Harper acolyte Joe Oliver has been playing hide and seek with voters and, as finance minister, on the true state of Canada’s economy. Star candidate Andrew Thomson, a former Saskatchewan finance minister, was parachuted in to make a statement for the NDP, which looked like a good idea when the party was riding high in the polls and the leader came to town to open his campaign office. But in hindsight, it was probably too much to ask in this midtown riding where the party has never enjoyed a significant presence. Thomson has slid from a high-water mark of 25 per cent in the polls. It’s nip and tuck between Oliver and Liberal Marco Mendicino, who had Irwin Cotler in the riding this week to bolster support among Jewish voters.
Best bet to beat the Cons Mendicino.
Ted Opitz
Etobicoke Centre
It’s a grudge rematch – a bit of a gong show here where Ukraine politics loom large – between Conservative incumbent Ted Opitz and Liberal Borys Wrzesnewskyj, who held the riding since 2004 before Opitz knocked him off in 2011 by a razor-thin 26 votes. Opitz, a former lieutenant colonel in the Canadian military (he was part of NATO’s stabilization force in Bosnia – and the pope’s security detail during his Canadian visit, as he likes to point out), has seemingly spent more time in court defending his 2011 win and battling Elections Canada for exceeding the spending limit by $7,000 during his 2008 nomination than representing constituents. Served on defence, immigration and veterans’ affairs committees in Ottawa, all files on which the HarperCons did not acquit themselves especially well.
Best bet to beat the Cons Wrzesnewskyj, but the NDP’s Tanya De Mello deserves some serious consideration, even if the party has never done especially well here, topping out at 14 per cent support in 2011.
Mark Adler
York Centre
A Liberal fortress going back to the Trudeau days until Mark Adler swiped it from Liberal star Ken Dryden in 2011 with 50 per cent of the vote in a race that proved even shameless opportunists like Adler (a former Liberal) can get elected. If that sounds harsh, then you don’t know Adler, whose only credentials seem to be that his parents are Holocaust survivors, a fact writ large on his campaign material. He also had glossy flyers dropped at doors on Thanksgiving Day warning locals that their kids will all become junkies if Trudeau is elected and legalizes pot. Shudder. Now he’s taking Jewish voters who put him over the top for granted. Not that folks in the riding need reminding, but Adler is also the one who whined about not being in the “money shot” with the PM during his highly publicized trip to Israel. Liberal Michael Levitt is within striking distance – five percentage points, according to Liberal polling – and got a boost this week from Green party candidate Constantine Kritsonis, who’s encouraging supporters to vote-swap and vote for Levitt.
Best bet to beat the Cons NDPer Hal Berman has run a credible campaign, but it’s Levitt all the way.
Chungsen Leung
Willowdale
This Liberal stronghold turned Conservative blue in the last election after almost three decades and is a bellwether riding the HarperCons are targeting. Low-profile incumbent Chungsen Leung, a parachute candidate (he lives in Richmond Hill, where he ran and lost for the Cons in 2008), barely won in a squeaker last time and is ripe for the picking. A recent Environics poll commissioned by Leadnow puts Liberal Ali Ehsassi, a lawyer and son of a former Iranian diplomat, nine points ahead among decided voters. But this ethnically diverse riding has been rejigged, incorporating part of Bayview on its eastern flank. And Ehsassi’s support for the Iran nuclear deal will play large among Jewish voters.
Best bet to beat the Cons Ehsassi, whose resumé lists stints with the Ontario Ministry of Economic Development and International Trade, and the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade in Ottawa.
Bernard Trottier
Etobicoke-Lakeshore
For a guy who knocked off former Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff in 2011, Conservative incumbent Bernard Trottier hasn’t exactly figured large in the Harper government’s plans. An IBM management consultant before he entered politics, the Alberta-born and -bred Trottier is an oddity among Conservatives – a francophone who reportedly eschewed the help of the party machine when it caught wind in 2011 that he had a shot at beating Ignatieff. This time around Trottier has distanced himself from the Fords, the area’s first family. His chief rival, Liberal James Maloney, is part of the cabal that runs with Councillor Mark Grimes and got the nomination only after Susan Watt quietly stepped aside. The NDP’s Phil Trotter, a Montreal native, is running in a riding that, to put it mildly, still a work in progress for the NDP.
Best bet to beat the Cons Maloney, but you might have to hold your nose.
Roxanne James
Scarborough Centre
Family values HarperCon Roxanne James, who rode in on a high horse in 2011 after a failed bid in 2008, is a cookie-cutter social conservative who can be counted on to parrot party policy, and spend oodles on taxpayer-funded literature promoting it in the riding. She’s a big spender that way. She made headlines earlier this year when a letter opposing same-sex marriage surfaced that she’d sent to the Sun back in the day. The NDP acquitted themselves well here in 2011, Natalie Hundt finishing just 1,000 votes behind incumbent Liberal John Cannis, who lost by some 1,400 votes to James. The NDP’s Alex Wilson, a Presbyterian pastor, serves on the board of 5n2 Soup Kitchens. Salma Zahid, a former senior adviser to the Ontario government on health issues and former chair of the Regent Park Duke of York School parent council, has been knocking on doors for the Grits since January.
Best bet to beat the Cons Zahid is slightly better positioned given overall Liberal support in the 416 and the riding’s history.
Joe Daniel
Don Valley North
This new riding was created with parts of Willowdale and Don Valley East, the latter of which was won in 2011 by Conservative Joe Daniel, who’s now seeking re-election here. Daniel is the first MP of Malayali descent. That’s the good part. The bad part: he was caught on tape in video obtained by the Star recently telling supporters that the refugee crisis is part of a conspiracy to flood Europe with Muslims. That’s saying something for a guy who represents a riding that’s more than half first-generation immigrants. Liberal Geng Tan is within spitting distance in an area of North York that’s a bit of a black hole for the NDP, whose standard-bearer, Akil Sadikali, ran next door in Don Valley East for the Greens in 2011.
Best bet to beat the Cons Tan, who’s vice-chair of the Confederation of Toronto Chinese Canadian Organizations.
John Carmichael
Don Valley West
It took three tries for former auto exec John Carmichael to take this seat for the Conservatives in 2011, and only then by little more than 1,000 votes over Liberal Rob Oliphant, who’s back for a rematch. Carmichael seems like a nice enough guy, but he’s indistinguishable from all the other Harper backbenchers. His claim to fame: a private member’s bill enshrining the right in law to fly the Canadian flag.
Best bet to beat the Cons Oliphant. His friend Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne (there’s that name again) should have something to say about this one. It’s the riding she represents provincially.
Compiled by Enzo Di Matteo with files from Jonathan Goldsbie.
