Toronto and its transit system face a long climb back to pre-COVID-19 pandemic conditions.
On June 17, the TTC board unanimously approved a report with recommendations for the recovery path forward. The TTC report sets out a range of safety measures and initiatives to bring back riders lost during the pandemic.
Compulsory masks and free Presto cards
Anyone within the TTC system will now be required to wear a mask or facial covering effective July 2 with few exceptions. Those include: children under two years of age, people with an underlying health conditions that prevent wearing of a mask, people who are unable to put on or take off a mask without assistance and TTC employees working in non-public areas, or behind a physical barrier or shield such as in a collector’s booth. People who must be accommodated under the Ontario Human Rights Code, for religious reasons, for example, will also be exempt from wearing masks.
Initially, the TTC will have a supply of one million masks to be distributed free of charge. This will be concentrated in lower-income areas of the city. The TTC says it will not bar access to those without masks, although social pressure from other riders may be enough for those who may not want to comply.
Additional safety measures
All vehicles are currently being cleaned and disinfected overnight. Surface vehicles will continue to be cleaned and disinfected at mid-day, and Wheel-Trans buses have added cleanings after carrying COVID-19 positive riders. Stations will also continue to be cleaned and disinfected, especially commonly touched surfaces, two to four times daily depending on usage.
Additional safety measures under consideration include hand sanitizers on transit vehicles for passengers, as well as ultra-violet disinfection and improved air filters in heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems.
Also, effective July 2, front door boarding on buses and payment by cash, token or ticket will resume, but riders will still have the option of using rear doors.
In an effort to bring back riders, the TTC will distribute free Presto cards in areas where usage to date has been low, although this does not address the problem of how riders will load their cards given the scarcity of locations, particularly in the suburbs, to do so.
Crowd control
One key challenge the TTC faces is the effect of unexpected delays on subway crowding when stations and trains can go from partly full to packed very quickly. The TTC is working on various responses to such situations, including moving passengers out of stations and onto surface routes.
That alternative, which is also used during service problems, is always a problem even under the best of circumstances because subway passengers quickly overwhelm surface-level loading zones and buses to carry riders.
Monthly pass credit
For those who bought a March or April 2020 monthly pass, there will be a refund based on actual usage between March 18 and April 30. This will be applied as a credit on the Presto account by August 21 where it can be used either toward the purchase of a September pass, or for pay-as-you-go rides. This option allows for riders who will not, by September, be using the TTC enough to justify buying a pass.
Financial fallout worse – and better – than expected
The net cost of lost ridership and revenue being projected by the TTC to Labour Day has been adjusted and is up slightly at $300 million.
Although the TTC announced the lay off about 1,000 employees back in April as part of its service cutbacks, about 300 of these have been retained to provide extra service as needed on key routes and additional shuttles.
On the capital side, some projects are ahead of their original schedules and spending plans because the light demand gives more flexibility for shutdowns and diversions.
Depending on the scenario for returning ridership through the fall, the total COVID-related deficit for 2020 would lie between $463 and $586 million depending on how much transit demand and fare revenue is recovered. The more riders, the lower the deficit, but the more crowded the vehicles.
Plans for normal service in the fall
The TTC is operating at about 80 per cent of its normal capacity although this varies across the city.
Demand to the financial district is down more sharply than to suburban workplaces because jobs downtown lend themselves more to work-from-home arrangements.
Ridership bottomed out at 14 per cent of “normal”, but has since recovered to around 19 per cent overall. The strongest recovery has been on the bus network which serves suburban work places and shopping trips that are more than walking distance.
The bus network is at 29.1 per cent, streetcars at 15, and subways at 16.5. This places the bus system overall at the upper limit the TTC can handle allowing for physical distancing on vehicles. On some routes, the recovery is stronger than the average, and TTC service is stretched to handle demand with allowances for physical distancing.
The TTC has plans to resume normal service probably in the fall on the assumption that the combined effect of school and work trips will drive up demand. However, the restoration will take into account the level of demand in various parts of the network.
Bus routes will likely be the first to see full service. High ridership routes will be the first candidates, and the 900 series express routes will also be restored. But special peak services for downtown-bound trips such as the 140 series premium express buses and the 176 Mimico GO shuttle will remain suspended.
Full streetcar and subway service would follow later as demand into the core area builds up. The combined effect of full service and increased loading standards would give the TTC about half of its usual capacity. This will require using most of the seats on vehicles, and that makes increased safety for riders through masking essential. However, this level of crowding could also deter some riders.
Wheel-Trans trip-up
Since the pandemic began, Wheel-Trans service has been curtailed and limited to essential trips. Only one passenger is carried per trip and special arrangements are in place for those who are or may be COVID-19 positive. Since mid-March hospital trips top the list of calls for service.
Ridership is at 17 per cent of pre-COVID levels, but this is expected to grow through the summer and fall as more destinations open up. Limited ride-sharing is projected to resume in September.
A resumption of higher Wheel-Trans demand faces challenges because the TTC is midway through a transition to its “family of services” model where trips are made partly on regular TTC vehicles if possible. This would be challenging under pre-COVID circumstances, but the difficulties are compounded by reduced capacity on surface vehicles.
Like so much in Toronto, what transit will look like in the future is uncertain.
@nowtoronto
