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Ukraine refugee crisis could surpass 6.7 million displaced by the Syrian war

As Russia ramps up the bombarding of civilian targets in an effort to soften Ukraine’s resistance, the resulting humanitarian crisis is threatening to engulf Europe.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reports that some two million Ukraines have already fled their homes, most of those over the last week as Russia has expanded attacks on civilian targets and infrastructure.

Neighbouring Poland, which has received more than one million refugees, as well as Hungary, Moldova, Romania and Slovakia have taken the majority of those escaping the war. The UNHCR suggests that as many as four million Ukrainians may be forced from their homes. That’s more than the number of refugees from the years-long conflicts in South Sudan (2.3 million) and Afghanistan (2.6 million) and almost two-thirds of the number of refugees created from the carnage in Syria (6.7 million).

The UNHCR says only some 2.4 million of those, most of them women and children, can be accommodated in bordering countries – some 53,000 refugees have reportedly fled to Russia. But Janez Lenarcic, the EU’s Commissioner for Humanitarian Aid and Crisis Management, told a press conference last week that the number of Ukrainian refugees could actually surpass seven million. And that as many as 18 million people, almost half Ukraine’s 41.3 million population, could be displaced by the war, counting those who remain in the country. That’s millions more people than the 14 million in total displaced by the war in Syria, counting the 6.8 million still displaced inside that country.

The dire predictions have created an urgent need for a global response.

European Union countries are considering offering Ukrainian refugees temporary asylum for three years without having to apply for it. A similar plan was established during the Balkan war in the 1990s. But the current effort has been politically charged by the fact that African and Middle Eastern students and workers in Ukraine who have been forced to flee are not being afforded the same accommodation. Indeed, refugees from Africa and the Middle East trying to enter Europe are often confronted with xenophobia and detention. 

Canada has announced its own “temporary accommodation” for refugees from Ukraine. “All Ukrainian nationals will be able to apply through this new path, and, pending background check and security screening, their stay in Canada could be extended by at least 2 years,” reads a statement released by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. The Biden Administration says that it would be offering temporary status to Ukrainian immigrants, but only those already in the U.S. 

On Monday, Russia and Ukraine completed another round of talks to discuss a ceasefire and the establishment of “humanitarian corridors” to allow the safe passage of refugees out of the country. 

Evacuations are underway in Sumy and Irpin, two cities west and southeast, respectively, of the capital Kyiv. But two previous ceasefires have been broken by shelling. The humanitarian corridor from Zaporizhzhia to Mariupol in southeastern Ukraine continues to be bombed, according to Ukrainian officials, who have been quoted in various media reports as saying that Russian negotiators are only willing to ensure the safety of refugees headed for Russia or Belarus.

Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed Ukraine for his continued aggression warning on Saturday that Ukraine risks losing its “statehood” as the country continues to resist calls to surrender amid increased missile fire and aerial bombardment.

Putin refuses to accept anything but Ukraine’s surrender, leading to a continued cycle of attacks on civilian targets. Ukraine officials, meanwhile, have called on Putin to be tried for war crimes. 

On February 28, the International Criminal Court Prosecutor Karim Khan announced that his office will seek to open an investigation into alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity by Russian forces in Ukraine.

According to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, some 1,123 civilian casualties – 364 killed (including 25 children) and 759 injured, have been confirmed “by the use of explosive weapons with a wide impact area, including shelling from heavy artillery and multi-launch rocket systems, and missile and airstrikes.”

But the office says that “the real figures are considerably higher, especially in government-controlled territory, and especially in recent days, as information from some locations where intense hostilities have been going on has been delayed and many reports are still pending corroboration. In the town of Volnovakha, for example, OHCHR is aware of allegations of hundreds of civilian casualties.” 

Amnesty International, which has accused Russian forces of “a manifest violation of the United Nations Charter… and an act of aggression that is a crime under international law,” says it has documented the deaths of civilians “resulting from indiscriminate attacks on civilian areas and infrastructure… strikes on hospitals and schools, [and] the use of banned weapons such as cluster bombs.”

Amnesty says the use of the weapons “may all qualify as war crimes.” The human rights group is calling “for all those involved in this crime to be held accountable for those violations.”

Human Rights Watch has also reported the “indiscriminate” use of “enhanced blast weapons,” also known as “thermobaric,” “fuel-air explosive,” and “vacuum” bombs, by Russian forces. The weapons are “more powerful than conventional high-explosive munitions… and injure people in buildings, basements and caves,” but are not banned by international law.

A backgrounder released by HRW explains that “the nature of enhanced blast weapons makes it virtually impossible for civilians to take shelter from their destructive effect.”

HRW describes the deadly effects of the weapons, which are “dispersed as a vapour cloud that uses atmospheric oxygen as a fuel when it is detonated. Destruction, death and injury are caused by the high-temperature blast wave created by the deflagration-to-detonation type explosion.” 

Putin’s actions have been widely condemned, including by allies at the UN. But whether his alleged crimes will ever see the inside of a courtroom remains doubtful.  

Russia signed the Rome Statute, the treaty that established the International Criminal Court in 2000, but withdrew its signature in 2016. Ukraine is not a signatory to the statute. The U.S. voted against adoption of the statute.

@enzodimatteo

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