The Conservative Party of Canada will choose a new leader tonight. A winner is expected to be announced sometime after 7:30 pm. That’s when the results of mail-in ballots will be known.
Some 170,000-plus party members took part in the vote. It’s been a mostly lacklustre race with more than a few nasty moments in between – most of those between the Peter MacKay and Erin O’Toole camps. Let’s not go over all the backbiting. Suffice to say that O’Toole called the RCMP on MacKay over alleged leaks to his campaign. More on that later.
Leslyn Lewis made inroads as the first woman of colour to contend for the party’s leadership. Derek Sloan, meanwhile, pulled up the rear playing angry young man for the Rebel Media crowd, which is good for YouTube views but not for a guy who figured to play kingmaker with his SoCon base before Lewis happened by.
The oddsmakers have MacKay winning it.
But the ranked ballot system of voting makes things a little tricky for the would-be leader. There hasn’t been an “anybody-but-MacKay” movement in an organized sense. But there has been plenty of talk of strategic voting to upend MacKay.
It’s no secret that to most of the party’s current Western base in Alberta, MacKay is not Conservative enough. But as long as he pulls the vote in BC, he should be alright, party insiders say. He’s already stronger than his competitors in Ontario and Atlantic Canada.
Here’s how the candidates break down.
Peter MacKay
Going for them Best bet to beat Trudeau. None of the other candidates in the race has the stature. He’s also the most likely to peel small-c conservative votes from Trudeau. It would only seem fitting. Two scions of Canadian political establishment going head to head.
Going against them Doesn’t have a seat in the House. Also, he’s Bay Street now, making his home in Toronto for the last several years, and the party’s base is not. No more good ole boy from the East Coast. The other thing: doesn’t speak French. It’s pretty bad. So much so that it may be beyond MacKay at this point. That spells trouble in Quebec, where the party is nowhere outside Quebec City.
Odds Even. It didn’t start out well for MacKay. At one point early on he had to call Conservative fixers in to help to save a teetering campaign. It was a mess. He’s righted the ship with stronger debate performances.
Erin O’Toole
Going for them It’s complicated. It’s the second go-around for O’Toole, so it’s now or never, which has made him seem a little less than prime ministerial at times. He’s cast himself as the “True Blue” candidate and the one to win in multi-ethnic 905 – his seat is in Durham – but that’s just as true of MacKay (MacKay’s wife is originally from Iran).
Going against them Focus groups – they don’t like him. Pipeline politics. He’s vowed to speed the approval of pipelines out West with a national pipeline act. But his platform reads like he is prepared to give the Quebec government veto powers over pipeline projects. Quebec is also the route for Western oil for refineries out East.
O’Toole spent a lot of time and energy early on in the campaign in Quebec, allegedly cooking up some strange alliances in the province to win votes. That’s what those leaks to the MacKay camp – and subsequent complaint to the RCMP – were all about. O’Toole didn’t want whatever deal he made with the devil getting out, which is why he called the cops. O’Toole is a former military man. Call it a pre-emptive strike.
Odds 5 to 1. Managed to raise more money than MacKay in the second quarter. But his stock has gone down as the race has progressed.
Leslyn Lewis
Going for them Social conservative base. Besides some healthy support in a handful of Toronto ridings, Lewis has found favour in parts of Saskatchewan and Southwestern Ontario.
Going against them Lewis has acquitted herself well, but running a leadership campaign and running a party are two different things. Also, she has never held political office.
Odds 100 to 1. Supporters on social media, where Lewis has a healthy presence, have been trying to play up her chances. But the reality is this version of the party is unlikely to elect a woman as a leader – let alone a person of colour. Sad but true.
Derek Sloan
Going for them Hard to say. Sloan has made a name for himself – some would say a pest – with his racially charged pronouncements on COVID-19. It almost got him the boot from the caucus. Certainly, the self-described “Conservative without apology” speaks to some elements in the party, only they happen to be the seamier ones.
Going against them The rookie MP was never going to be anything but a bit player in this one. He may still surprise – the hardcore is firmly behind him. His performance, however, may give voters in his riding more reason not to vote for him in the next federal runoff. It’s been that bad.
Odds Not gonna happen.
