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Thomas Mulcair: A dynamic force of nature, he has the gutsy personality it takes for power

As the race to replace Jack Layton as leader of the New Democratic Party steams to its climactic conclusion next weekend, March 23-24, the differences between the seven remaining candidates are largely stylistic rather than substantial, with one significant exception.

And of course there’s l’éléphant dans le chambre – the candidates’ ability to speak French, since fluency is increasingly considered essential for the head of a party girding to lead the nation and boasting a huge Quebecois caucus.

Heading out of the gate seven months ago, party insider Brian Topp (preferred choice of many NDP brass) and Layton’s Quebec lieutenant, Thomas Mulcair, were the clear front-runners, with Toronto MP Peggy Nash a close third. Fresh-faced Ottawa MP Paul Dewar garnered early buzz, and BC MP Nathan Cullen’s outside idea to pursue an unsought alliance with the Greens and the Liberals got some attention, if little early traction.

The rest of the pack dropped off or, in the cases of the tireless Niki Ashton and the inexplicable Martin Singh, remained firmly stalled in the also-ran category.

While the media have screamed for blood, the campaign has been largely civil, though sharks are circling clear frontrunner Mulcair. His status is also confirmed by volleys launched from outside the party, including “leaked” Conservative attempts to smear him. Liberal and Tory eagerness to disparage Mulcair may mean he’s the candidate they most fear.

After a strong start, Topp has done little to impress new supporters, demonstrating a weak grasp of the “retail politics” essential to first win a federal seat.

By joining Topp’s attack on Mulcair for being critical of the party, Nash inadvertently positioned herself as an old-school candidate afraid of challenging the orthodoxies that have held the party back, a yesterday’s woman more suited to a party perpetually stuck outside of real power.

Like Topp’s, Nash’s lustre has dimmed, not grown, during the race, disappointing many fans of this excellent MP. An early gaffe when she pandered to Quebec supporters and threw the NDP’s universal health care pledge under the bus made her look desperate and shaky.

Dewar’s big shiny campaign never looked better than on opening day, and his abysmal command of French became all the more glaring when he needlessly declared star NDP MP Charlie Angus his dream deputy leader despite his lack of French fluency, too – a “screw you” to Quebec Dippers.

Give Nathan Cullen credit: his eloquence in English (not matched in his fumbling French) has created some momentum. His Pollyanna plea for inter-“progressive” party love has caught the attention of some members. It’s a strange, wishful plan with no overt support from the Liberals. They’d no doubt be delighted to see the NDP elect a leader prepared to stop and “wait” for the parties trailing behind before storming after Harper with all cylinders firing.

The best way for the NDP to unite Canadian progressives is by using its new national status to run to win, inviting all Tory opponents into its big orange tent. The one way to ensure this doesn’t happen is not to try. It’s hard to imagine a stranger time for the NDP to consider forming coalitions with parties in collapse.

Et l’elephant?

Would any other Canadian party even consider electing a leader who couldn’t effectively converse with the majority of his or her caucus in their mother tongue? And would the expert political spinmeisters of the old-school parties contemplate a candidate unable to communicate effectively with its breakthrough Quebec base? Never. So why should the NDP?

We’ve seen how the English media eat up and spit out English-challenged national leaders like Stéphane Dion and now the NDP’s Nycole Turmel. Why would the French media be any kinder to a Cullen, Dewar or even Nash as they struggled to be understood?

Which leaves Topp and Mulcair. If Topp were elected, the party would remain in stasis along with its seatless leader. It might literally be six more months before he could be a presence in the House, with Harper in no hurry to call a forced by-election. A Topp victory would mean the NDP would have gone a year without a real chief, stuck in neutral after a stunning breakthrough. Talk about an electoral buzz kill.

Thomas Mulcair should be the next leader of the NDP and the next prime minister of Canada.

People didn’t just like Layton’s personality they liked the fact that he had one. Mulcair is a dynamic, articulate force of nature in French or English and has the kind of gutsy personality voters respond to. He’s capable of taking on Harper and isn’t afraid of getting elected or doing what it takes to get there. Not a real party member? Doesn’t play well with others? Liberal insiders said the same about Pierre Trudeau, and love him or hate him, he went on to dominate a generation of Canadian politics.

Layton challenged the party to seek power, not run from it. He wasn’t afraid to tinker and change, and neither is Mulcair. That he has the most support among caucus members, many of whom have now worked longer in Parliament without Jack than with him, shows that those who know him well choose him.

Like Layton, Mulcair wants his party to look outward, not inward. The NDP has a history of convention policies passed in heady left-wing love-ins that come back to haunt them, like the call for an immediate withdrawal from NATO or other positions dramatically ahead of the Canadian curve. Mulcair understands, as Layton did, too, that a party on the verge of power can no longer wage lefter-than-thou holy wars. Canadians are prepared to hear the NDP’s message for change because most do want a different Canada. Thomas Mulcair is the NDPer most likely to deliver it.

michaelh@nowtoronto.com

twitter.com/m_hollett

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