A lot has changed in the Arctic since Robert Flaherty’s 1922 silent film classic Nanook Of The North wrapped Canadians in a warm blanket of nostalgia with its quaint portrayal of the true north strong and free.
Global warming is seeing to that. But now, on the cusp of a worldwide wave of unprecedented expansion, the race is on for the region’s rich oil and gas resources. The Arctic is on thin ice, a ticking ecological time bomb wrapped in political controversy.
The new cold war
It’s not just Canada’s any more. The U.S., Russia, Greenland (Denmark), Finland and Norway are major players in the north. Under the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCOLS), the countries have until 2013 to make their case to the UN on where the lines delineating economic zones should be drawn. Political glitch: the U.S. won’t sign the UN treaty.
Up for grabs
Access to vast amounts of oil and natural gas. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, as much as 90 billion barrels of oil and 1,670 trillion cubic feet of natural gas lie beneath the Arctic ice.
Global warning
On the horizon, the new ecological buzzwords of our time, “methane burp”: the release of methane gas, 25 times more powerful than other greenhouse gases, from ice shelves long thought impermeable but now perforated and leaking large amounts of methane into the atmosphere.
Total ecological disaster
It’s happened with methane burps twice before, millions of years ago, unleashing a chain reaction of events leading to rapid warming and massive plant and animal die-offs. More than 94 per cent of marine species were wiped out.
The fallout: it took 20 million to 30 million years for rudimentary coral reefs to re-?establish themselves and for forests to regrow.
Going, going, gone with the floe
A freak of nature – colder than usual temperatures – is the reason behind data showing more ice over the Arctic this winter. The reality: the ice cap has shrunk by almost half since 1979. By 2060, it’s forecast that the Arctic Ocean will be free of summer ice.
Making ocean waves
The region’s high latitude actually makes the Arctic and its people more susceptible to the ravages of greenhouse gases. Water in the Arctic Ocean is 30 per cent more acid than in pre-?industrial times.
Marine biologists, oceanographers and polar explorers say the seawater has become corrosive to the shells, skeletons and armoured plating of marine life.
Sure signs of big trouble
The Arctic Species Trend Index. Populations of the seven marine mammals that inhabit the Arctic year round (bowhead whale, beluga whale, narwhal, ringed seal, bearded seal, walrus and polar bear) are described as being in a “tenuous position” in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s 2009 Arctic Report Card.
“It is unclear,” the report says, “how quickly they can adapt to rapid changes in habitat.”
What we do know: survival rates among polar bear populations are falling because of reduced sea ice, walruses are spending more time on land in unusually large numbers across the Arctic plains, reindeer and wild caribou herds are in decline and northern Arctic char, an irreplaceable component of the region’s biodiversity, are at “acute risk” because of environmental stresses.
Numbers game
Why the doomsday scenario could be worse than scientists imagine: researchers are just now collecting the data needed to make an accurate appraisal of the environmental changes taking place in the Arctic. All that’s certain is that the situation is getting worse.[rssbreak]
