A win was never really in the cards for Peter Milczyn in Etobicoke-Lakeshore, was it?
It was going to be an uphill battle under the best of circumstances. His main opponent, Doug Holyday, is a former mayor of Etobicoke and a popular enough guy, decent some would say when not weighed down by the need to defend the bad boy Fords.
Milczyn had the Liberal machine behind him, including the army that had helped former area MPP Laurel Broten to three resounding victories since 2003.
But once the Fords decided to enter the fray and put their political muscle behind Holyday, well, the writing was on the wall. It was all over but for the shouting.
In the days before last night’s vote, the tone among Libs had changed markedly from one of upbeat optimism to resignation. Too much was being made of that photo op of Holyday’s with a city garbage truck, allegedly in contravention of campaign rules. Hmm, wonder whose idea that was? Any ideas, Mr. Mayor?
You always know a campaign is in trouble when the focus becomes slinging mud at the other guy instead of talking up the issues, which had been the Lib strategy until the final days. On election day, Liberals took to Twitter to complain about Milczyn supporters being ticketed at one polling stations where there wasn’t enough room to park legally. (Had Rob sent out parking enforcement?) Holyday election signs outside another polling station, in contravention of more election rules, was another source of Liberal consternation.
For some Grits it was difficult to watch the inevitable, to see the other guy riding in on Ford’s coattails. While Holyday read from the Fordian handbook on gravy train rhetoric, Milczyn displayed more of a grasp of the local issues. Milczyn was the more polished candidate.
But this by-election was just as much about voters excising their pound of flesh for the failures, and scandals, of the previous McGuinty government. Inside the Golden Lion banquet hall off the Queensway, that knowledge seemed evident among campaign workers and Milczyn supporters early.
Indeed, an unusually casual vibe (resignation?) permeated among the 100 or so Milczyn supporters who crowded into the Masonic-inspired space to await the results. The three TVs in the joint were on mute so there was no listening to results as they came in, which seemed odd given the anticipation that had followed this race.
A dejected Milczyn took the stage shortly after 11 pm, some two hours after polls had closed, to give his concession speech.
The most interesting thing in it: the hint that Milczyn may not be back at his familiar place at City Hall, as councillor for Ward 5, come the 2014 municipal elections. It’s doubtful he’ll seek re-election as councillor for the area. In fact, Milczyn said it was “time for a change,” when he announced his intentions to carry the Liberal flag some 28 days ago, a clear signal he had no intention looking back win or lose.
In his speech, Milczyn admitted to a waning interest in municipal politics. After 20 years in that game, who could blame him. City Hall has become a very cynical place under the brothers Ford. And Milczyn, who sits on the mayor’s executive, has gone from sycophant for reasons of political self-preservation, to grown increasingly uncomfortable toeing the Ford line.
Besides, Milczyn figures there’ll be a provincial general election in six months to a year. Clearly, he has his eye on a rematch, promising the result will be different next time. And it might be. Holyday didn’t exactly runaway with this one, winning by some 1,600 votes.
But a win is a win and over at Holyday campaign party headquarters just down the street at a place called The Brawley (there were no fights, although one guy wanted to hit me over the head with a balloon) beer cups were overflowing with the feeling of mission accomplished.
The mayor and his sidekick brother, Doug – or is that Doug and his sidekick brother the mayor? – were in the house, posing for pics with youngins who don’t know better eager to bask in the aura of power. The rest of the place was filled mostly with the over 65 crowd that makes up Holyday’s and the Ford base.
The PC leader, Tim Hudak, also made an appearance with his wife, former Mike Harris senior adviser Deb Hutton in tow. Hudak’s presence lent a sense of occasion to the festivities. Holyday’s is the first seat the party has managed to win in the 416 in 10 years.
Whether or not it’ll prove a momentum changer for the PCs in the big smoke remains to be seen. Hudak has leadership issues which won’t be put to rest with this win. No one could foresee the other x-factor in this race. Namely, the Liberal gas plant scandal in neighbouring Mississauga that the Libs cancelled to win votes but were now being excoriated for at the doors. Not that Holyday needed the extra help necessairly, but it certainly blew more wind in his sails.
Etobicoke has always been fertile ground for conservatives. But the fact that across town in Scarborough-Guildwood the Libs were returned, despite the mayor’s intervention and a PC offensive that included visits by former PC leader-turned-radio talk show host John Tory, doesn’t exactly bode well for future PC prospects in the big smoke.
Then there was the subway/transit/LRT snafu, which is beginning to smell like a repeat of the Lib gas plant scandals. Namely, the Libs promising to spend a billion more on subways taxpayers can’t afford to win a few votes. If there’s hay to be made for conservatives outside the ‘Coke, it’s in the mayor’s other favourite suburb.
That Ford couldn’t deliver for the PCs there, after that neatly timed Ford Fest (it’s all coming into focus now), says more in some ways than the Etobicoke results, which were never really in doubt.
enzom@nowtoronto.com | @enzodimatteo
