Let’s break down the main contenders in this Thursday’s by-election.
Platform in a nutshell: Mostly promising to do better in the face of Liberal scandals. That gas plant cancellation next door in Mississauga, however, is proving harder to outrun than Liberals thought.
Proof of that: the ubiquitous presence of Liberal finance minister Charles Sousa in Milczyn’s campaign. It’s in Sousa’s riding that the gas plant was being built before Libs changed their minds in the face of local opposition to secure his seat during the 2011 provincial election.
Going for him: Former Liberal MPP Laurel Broten’s formidable base and army of supporters (she’s won the riding handily in three elections since 2003) backing of Grit machine (Premier Kathleen Wynne and several MPPs have been out to canvass with Milczyn) a quick start out of the gates oh yeah, Milczyn has represented the area as a councillor, first on Etobicoke council and then the amalgamated city, since 1994.
Going against him: Cognitive dissonance of voters. Locals who wanted aforementioned gas plant on the Etobicoke border shut down, are now apparently pissed at the costs of the cancellation. Go figure.
Not helping Milczyn’s cause: it looks like he’s trying to get out of municipal politics while the getting is good in what is/was thought to be a safe Liberal seat. He barely held on to his council seat in 2010, eventually agreeing to back Ford in return for Ford not running a candidate against him. Milczyn would be facing a Ford-backed candidate in 2014 should he lose this one.
The skinny The Libs are worried about losing this one, which is why its been all hands on deck for Milczyn. Some Libs have already moved to their next talking point: namely, that a loss here would not be a referendum on the Wynne government.
Platform in a nutshell: Gravy train rhetoric that got Rob Ford elected mayor, only it’s the mess at Queen’s Park uncle Doug says he’s running to clean up.
Going for him: Name recognition Ford Nation – the mayor and his brother Doug, have been out campaigning for Holyday. Also, voters seem to have forgotten that Holyday had his own concerns back in 2011 about the gas plant issue now dogging the Libs.
Word on the street is that the area’s federal Conservative MP Bernard Trottier is in the fold with that crack Constituency Information Management System database used by the HarperCons to target conservative voters.
Going against him: Etobicoke-Lakeshore is not natural political turf for Holyday, who represents Etobicoke-Centre as councillor. Holyday really hasn’t had to campaign the last couple of municipal elections so doesn’t have voters lists he can rely on to get out the vote.
It’s been a lacklustre performance, with Holyday guilty of a number of missteps, including recently commissioning a city garbage truck for a photo op (apparently in contravention of campaign election rules.)
The skinny: Support from the mayor can’t be overstated as a factor here, even with those lingering crack allegations hanging over Ford’s head. Both Rob and Doug live in the riding. In some ways, this byelection is as much a referendum on Ford Nation as it is for Wynne government, which is why the mayor has been so omnipresent here.
Platform in a nutshell: Relying mostly on “getting results” staple of the NDP. Has also targetted youth unemployment and small business
Going for him: Fact he’s lived in the riding for two decades is a former public school board trustee (although he served many moons ago in the mid-90s). The party has a base in the riding but it’s still a far cry from the days when the popular Ruth Grier, Bob Rae’s former environment minister and minister of health, held it for the NDP.
Going against him: Late start. Choo didn’t officially launch his campaign until July 20, when the race was half over. Choo ran for the NDP in Markham-Unionville in 2011 where he finished a distant third with 12 per cent of the vote.
The skinny: Is relying on NDP leader Andrea Horwath’s personal popularity to get out the vote. The NDP leader has figured prominently in both byelection races in Toronto. It’s her face along with the candidates’ on election signs and campaign advertising in both Etobicoke-Lakeshore and the other byelection race in Scarborough-Guildwood.
Not so fearless prediction: It’s between Lib machine versus the PC old boys network in the riding and who can get more boots on the ground election day.
enzom@nowtoronto.com | @enzodimatteo
