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Decision day decoder

The crazy thing about #elxn41 is that we may just be getting started with only a few days left till D-Day. Time to cast our gaze skyward and drink in the big picture with our cross-Canada roundup of the races to watch on election night (May 2).

The trends The conventional wisdom is that the Libs are bleeding support to the NDP, according to the most recent polling. But that’s only half-right. All the parties are losing votes to the Dippers, which is creating a dynamic in which, depending on the vote split, the NDP could win a shitload of seats or open the door for Liberal victories in close two-way contests with the Cons.

It’s a weird political scene that is still very much in a state of flux. In fact, there are more races in which the Libs are threatening to knock off the Conservatives – a dozen or so – than there are races in which the NDP is threatening to defeat Libs.

Interestingly, there are just as many races in which the NDP is nipping at the heels of Conservative candidates.

In Ontario, as many as 25 of the province’s 106 seats may change hands.

The Conservatives have the poll numbers, but the reality on the ground tells a different story. Harp and Co. are looking to take some seats from Grits in the 905 but stand to lose in other parts of the province where they barely squeaked by in 2008.

The NDP’s numbers in the 2008 runoff suggest more modest gains than projected with the party’s recent surge, including two more seats in Toronto.

The Libs are struggling to hold the fort in Brampton West and Brampton-Springdale, ridings the Conservatives have heavily targeted for ethnic votes, as well as in Mississauga South and five Toronto ridings – Eglinton-Lawrence, Don Valley West and York Centre, where the Conservatives are threatening, and Davenport and Parkdale-High Park, where the NDP is breathing down their necks.

The Conservatives, though, have their own problems in Ontario, fighting to hang on in ridings they took from the Libs in 2008. Among them, Mississauga-Erindale, which the Conservatives won by fewer than 400 votes Oak Ridges-Markham, which Harp’s crew won by fewer than 600 votes while spending twice as much as the Liberal contender Kitchener Centre, won by some 340 votes Kitchener-Waterloo, won by a measly 17 votes, and London West and Kenora.

Not to be forgotten is Simcoe-Grey, where former Conservative MP Helena Guergis, ostracized from the party over nobody knows quite what, is running as an independent. And in Durham, MP Bev Oda, she of contempt-of-Parliament charges fame, is facing a spirited fight from Grit Grant Humes.

It’s out west and in Quebec where the NDP is most likely to make the most gains.

In BC and the Prairies, a dozen ridings are in play for the NDP.

In Quebec, the vote breakdown from the 2008 races suggests the Bloc will be the big loser, ousted from up to a dozen seats, those split roughly evenly between Libs and NDP. Both parties are also within striking distance in a handful of seats now held by the Conservatives.

The Libs seem to be holding in Montreal, but could lose a few of those battles with the Bloc to the NDP if their numbers keep tanking.

The Conservatives, meanwhile, are doing some ass-covering of their own in four of the 12 seats they hold in Quebec, including Pontiac, where war minister Lawrence Cannon is in double trouble. Both the Libs and NDP are challenging there.

No one is suggesting yet that Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe is vulnerable, but the NDP drew 1,000 to a rally in Duceppe’s riding. Mon dieu.

Alberta is awash in Conservative party blue except for Edmonton-Strathcona, which is held by NDPer Linda Duncan. But the Libs think they can steal one in Edmonton Centre, with long-shot Mary MacDonald (the riding used to be held by Lib Anne McLellan).

In the Prairies, the Conservatives hold all but one of the 14 seats but are being tested in three. Only one, Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, looks to be within reach, and that’s for the NDP.

Moving east to Manitoba, the NDP is looking for pickups in two ridings, including Saint Boniface, which is held by the Conservatives.

On the West Coast, popular Burnaby-Douglas MP Bill Siksay, who squeaked in by fewer than 800 votes last time, is retiring, but the NDP should be able to hold on. Ditto for Vancouver Kingsway.

In Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, the Libs will be struggling now that former Reformer-turned-Liberal Keith Martin is vacating his seat.

If the Green party has any hope, it’s with leader Elizabeth May in Saanich-Gulf Islands, where a recent poll put May ahead of Conservative party incumbent Gary Lunn.

On the East Coast, meanwhile, it’s mostly the status quo, save for five seats of the total 30 being contested. Four of those are held by the Conservatives, including Miramichi and West Nova, where the Libs are challenging, and South Shore-St. Margaret’s, where the NDP is close.

The upshot: If the polls are to be believed, looking at the vote splits, the Conservatives are facing a diminished minority (shocker?), the Libs holding mostly pat (barring another dip in their poll numbers and if, a big if, they’re not abandoned by strategic voters) and the NDP counting up to two dozen more seats.

Of course, all that can change given the roller-coaster ride of the last few days. It’s a sprint to the finish.

enzom@nowtoronto.com

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