Public opinion polls are split, and the firing of TTC chief general manager Gary Webster – not to mention economist Don Drummond’s gloomy financial forecast for Ontario – may be wreaking political havoc with the transit file.
But here are five reasons why the province will go ahead with council’s decision to build LRTs and shelve Mayor Rob Ford’s privately-funded subway dream.
1. The political fallout for the Libs would be too huge to back down now on council’s decision to go with light rail.
The Libs hold 17 of the city’s 22 seats. That’s a third of their total in the province. The government’s minority status means there could be an election in as little as two years – the opposition PCs are aiming for 18 months. The last thing Dalton McGuinty’s gang wants is to piss off Toronto voters – and the majority of councillors who voted to shelve Ford’s subway plans in favour of light rail.
Ford is trying to make subways a wedge issue. But most voters understand that there’s no money to finance Ford’s private subway plan. Which is why the Ford admin is now floating parking fees and sales taxes (which the city doesn’t have the power to implement) to raise the billion in private cash Ford’s point man on the transit file, Gordon Chong, couldn’t find.
Now there’s a switch – the mayor that promised his subway plans wouldn’t cost taxpayers a cent wants taxpayers to pick up the tab. Note to Ford Notion: it will take 25 years under Ford’s parking fees plan to raise the funds necessary for Ford’s subway.
2. The money for the light rail plan endorsed by council, has already been budgeted by Metrolinx, the province’s transit agency.
Some on the right are trying to stir the pot and suggest that economist Don Drummond’s report recommending a host of cuts to balance the province’s books may cause the Libs to reconsider their $8.4 billion investment in Toronto transit. But the fact is it’s the delays caused by Ford unilaterally killing Transit City in the first place that’s added the most uncertainty and untold tens of millions in engineering and other costs to the province’s light rail plans. In fact Drummond’s report calls for a national strategy with provinces cities and the feds to fund more transit.
3. The mayor’s plan to bury all of the Eglinton-Crosstown and ditch the Finch LRT was never the province’s preference.
The $2 billion that would add to the transit bill was ludicrous to contemplate for anyone with half a brain.
The Grits, however, couldn’t ignore the mayor’s personal popularity after the municipal election. So they played along to get along. There was a provincial election to think about, especially after the HarperCons did the unthinkable and won seven seats in T.O.
Where McGuinty outfoxed Ford was in getting him to sign a Memorandum of Understanding, which required a vote of council to make the deal to bury Eglinton binding. Ford thought he could ignore the MoU and council altogether, which should tell you something about his contempt for the democratic process. Maybe he thought his buddy Tim Hudak would be premier.
But for the province, the MoU was it’s ace in the hole, the leverage they could use to force a vote of council on the matter. Enter Karen Stintz.
4. The province’s light rail plans for Toronto are too important to its overall vision of an integrated regional network in the Golden Horseshoe to let Rob Ford get in the way.
It’s no coincidence the Transportation Minister Bob Chiarelli was invited to speak to the Toronto Board of Trade Friday. The economic pressure to build transit infrastructure sooner rather than later has reached the critical point given the $6 billion gridlock is costing the Toronto region’s economy every year.
The Premier and Chiarelli have been clear on the LRTs versus subways debate. What part of “council’s will is supreme” do the Fordists not understand? If there’s been any ambiguousness in the province’s position it has been created by the firing of TTC chief general manager Gary Webster by a slim one-vote majority of Ford sycophants on the TTC board. After all, it’s the TTC general manager who will have to work with Metrolinx on the province’s plan.
But everyone, including the province, sees Webster’s firing for what it is – a desperate and cold political move by Ford to throw the transit file into disarray, and buy a little more time to sell his subway scheme.
Here too Ford is cornered. The guy the Ford admin reportedly wanted to put in Webster’s place right away, recent Aussie import and TTC CAO Andy Byford – who has some experience with running a private rail company Down Under – reportedly had work visa issues. Regardless, the TTC’s new general manager will not be chosen by Ford after council gets around to reconstituting the TTC board, perhaps as soon as its March 5 meeting, and booting off those commissioners who took part in the Webster coup.
5. It’s politics, stupid.
Ford’s on the mat and taking the 10-count. The Libs aren’t going to do their arch enemy any favours and help him fulfill an election promise to build subways. (Historical note: it was Ford’s proposed budget cuts, a good chunk of them later overturned by council, that got the Libs re-elected in droves in Toronto to begin with.)
More importantly, the province may have its own designs on the TTC. A takeover of the system by Queen’s Park (see point number four above) somewhere down the line is not completely out of the question. The pros and cons of that is a story for another day.
But for the purposes of the current discussion, consider the following: The TTC is a valuable asset – the third largest system (by ridership numbers) – in North America. Billions have been invested by the province to help build the system, including the purchase of new subways and streetcars. It’s the province that will own any new track and vehicles that will be built in Toronto, including the Eglinton-Crosstown and Finch LRT, under Metrolinx’s “5 in 10” plan – the project to build five transit lines in 10 years.
The last thing Queen’s Park wants is to see Ford run the TTC into the ground and create the political climate for outright privatization.
