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Eglinton-Lawrence

Incumbent Liberal Joe Volpe

Main challenger Conservative Joe Oliver

The skinny Considered the most vulnerable Liberal seat in Toronto. Volpe has held this riding since 88. Yikes. Not necessarily a bad thing except Volpe is one of those Grits who hasn’t exactly distinguished himself in 20-plus years on the Hill. Has won by huge numbers in the past, thanks to Jewish support east of Bathurst and Italian support in Downsview, but faced his stiffest challenge yet in 2008 besting Oliver by little more than 2,000 votes after cruising to a more than 12,000-vote victory in 2006. Oliver’s back for a rematch and is winning the sign wars so far in the riding’s more tony neighbourhoods. The race got nasty in 2008 after flyers questioning Liberal party support for Israel found their way onto doorsteps.

Don Valley West

Incumbent Liberal Rob Oliphant

Main challenger Conservative John Carmichael

The skinny The riding the Tories think they have the best chance of winning. The big guns have already been out campaigning with Carmichael, among them: finance minister Jim Flaherty, defence minister Peter MacKay and immigration minister Jason Kenney. This riding has Tory roots that go back to former House Speaker John Bosley. Carmichael, a former auto exec, has distinguished himself from other Conservative candidates by not putting the PM front and centre in his campaign. His website features none of the regular Conservative fare of daily press releases featuring Harper or those nasty attack ads. But the loser label may be a problem for Carmichael, who is running for a fourth time here. He fell some 2,000 votes short in 2008 to Oliphant, a United Church minister who made an impressive showing last time despite questions about being parachuted into the riding and spending significantly less than Carmichael.

York-Centre

Incumbent Liberal Ken Dryden

Main challenger Conservative Mark Adler

The skinny The Conservatives are hoping to capitalize on anti-Liberal sentiment among Jewish voters here. But it will be a tough slog. The party ran former B’nai Brith vice-president Rochelle Wilner against Dryden in 2008, making an issue of the Liberal party’s positions on Israel and voting record at the UN while in government. The strategy almost worked with Wilner losing by a little more than 2,000 votes. Party leader Michael Ignatieff’s past pronouncements on the Israel-Palestinian conflict may hurt this time out. The X-factor here, though, is Dryden’s personal popularity. He’s got oodles of it. Adler, who is president and CEO of the Economic Club of Canada, boasts big biz connections and has been out knocking on doors for the last 10 months. He’s beating that coalition drum hard, but will have to offer something more than the party line to convince discerning voters here.

Willowdale

Incumbent Liberal Martha Hall-Findlay

Main challenger Conservative Chungsen Leung

The skinny This riding, which used to be held by Jim Peterson, former Ontario premier David Peterson’s older brother, has a history of swinging back and forth between Conservatives and Libs federally. Hall Findlay, a former Liberal leadership candidate, won rather handily in 2008, first in a by-election and later the general election, even while her Conservative challenger spent twice as much trying to get elected here. As close to a bellwether as there is in Toronto. If Liberal dominos start to fall in T.O., Hall Findlay may be vulnerable given here more leftist sensibility in what is a riding with 905ish political leanings. Leung, who manages a disaster relief company, is banking on a local base and the riding’s sizable Asian population for votes, but no longer lives in the riding – an issue that somewhat dogged Hall Findlay last time. Leung’s substantial business ties also lie further north, in Markham and Richmond Hill.

Etobicoke North

Incumbent Liberal Kirsty Duncan

Main challenger Conservative Priti Lamba

The skinny The Ford factor, as in Mayor Rob Ford and big brother Doug, the area councillor, looms large here. Duncan won handily in 2008 against Conservative Bob Saroya, who would have seemed the logic pick to run here again (he and Rob go back). Saroya upped the Conservative vote in the 2008 runoff, but is trying his luck in Markham-Unionville this time out. Etobicoke North is among the most diverse ridings in the country and Duncan has been working the multicult vote hard. An unknown quantity when she ran for the first time in 2008, Duncan surprised many by managing to win almost 50 per cent of the ballots cast, despite a lower than usual Liberal voter turnout. Doug Ford and Vincent Crisanti, the other councillor representing Etobicoke North, have been spotted at events with Lamba, who has a local base. But she’s not getting anywhere near the high profile help of other Conservative candidates given a shot at winning. So far, only Julian Fantino, the MP from Vaughan, has leant his mug to her cause.

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