For Rob Ford, it’s the easy promises that are no sweat to keep.
So right on cue Thursday morning, January 2, he registered to run for mayor, the first to officially enter the race, as he’s said for months he would be. For a guy who’s the incumbent, supposed to be biding his time to see how the field pans, Ford has gotten in way too early. But when your term has been one scandal after another and you need to raise cash as soon as possible, it’s not surprising.
In a brief scrum with reporters, he vowed to fight the big fight. As expected, he called the reports of escorts and coke and hanging with gang-bangers and drug dealers personal attacks. Then he declared that he’s the best thing Toronto has seen since sliced bread.
Physically, the mayor in name only since he’s been stripped of his powers, looks better. He seems to have found some personal peace, at least for the time being, from his demons, the ones that have caused him to show up around town in “drunken stupors” and led, it seems, to more than a few crack-smoking binges.
Still, a full 10 months before the actual October 27 vote, his chances of a repeat victory look a longshot. Too many things would have to break his way, among them John Tory deciding not to run, and right now he’s 95 per cent certain to go.
I may be misreading the electorate. Because the word “stupidity,” as in the stupidity of those who would vote for anyone like Ford, is now of-ten used to describe the state of our political discourse, anything is possible. The perfect storm that carried Ford into office last time may strike again, extreme weather events being increasingly frequent.
But after the three years we’ve been through, most folks (not the hardcore Ford Nationalists who suffer from partisan brainitis) who voted for him last time have probably reached the point of exhaustion. Having Ford for mayor has been like having an alcoholic father: most are just gassed from the emotional roller coaster ride if they aren’t turned off family life altogether.
Ford says he’s ready to take on all comers, that he’s up for the gruelling schedule, to go toe-to-toe in 200 debates. He sounds like he’s still coaching high school football, like he can keep plodding along, pounding the ball slowly, monotonously down the field despite all the fumbling and rolling in the muck under his watch.
It’s more likely he’ll end up a footnote when push comes to shove and the contenders are separated from the pretenders. That’s not just the assessment of Ford’s council opponents on the left and right, but of some who worked on his 2010 run and are not so quietly working behind the scenes prepping Tory’s bid. Chief among them is Nick Kouvalis, the architect of Ford’s 2010 win. You heard that right. John Capobianco, another Ford supporter in 2010, has jumped ship to Tory as well.
Then there’s the x factor: the ongoing police investigation into the mayor and his alleged drug dealer, Alexander Lisi, and efforts by the latter to retrieve the cellphone video of Ford smoking crack and uttering homophobic and racist slurs. Word on the street is that police may be closer to pulling the trigger on charges against Ford.
Ford more years
There’s a campaign slogan that smells like it was written on the back of a napkin in a drunken stupor at one of those 905 Italian restaurants the mayor likes to frequent. “Ford more years.” Really?
As slogans go, it breaks the cardinal rule: it says nothing. That may work for the hardcore 20 per cent of Ford’s support. But Rofo will need 40 per cent of the vote to win.
Incumbency has its advantages, of course. The mayor won’t have to spend tens of thousands of dollars putting his name out there. His notoriety has taken care of that. And being the co-owner of a printing business means Ford could issue a million bucks’ worth of literature and nobody would know. Robocalls will give him further reach.
But political campaigns are won by people, and Ford has no campaign team to speak of. No message track. No competent people who can marshal forces on the ground. People forget that before Kouvalis came along to work miracles in 2010, Ford had gone through three campaign managers. There’ll be no Ford slate to strike fear into the hearts of challengers.
I mean, when the news of the day is that the son of Ford’s elder sister Kathy may be dispatched to hold onto Doug’s Ward 2 seat in the event that he opts to run provincially in a widely expected spring election, you know the pickin’s are slimmer than slim.
There are questions about money, too. The joke is that Rob blew it all on hookers and coke, and that may not be far from the truth.
There’s still the Ford family fortune to draw on, but not the cool million that’s needed to mount a serious effort. Ford couldn’t raise the bread last time either. He managed about $300K, but back then there were lists of Conservative and Liberal voters to target. Not this time. And he still had to borrow from Doug and the company. Until, that is, the tide shifted and polls showed he was on his way to victory.
That’s when the Bay Street cash started flowing thanks to Ralph Lean and his connections at the mayor-making money machine at Cassels Brock. This time the bulk of the corporate cash will be split between Tory, who’ll take the lion’s share if he runs, and the already declared Karen Stintz and David Soknacki. Ford will be picking up the crumbs.
Polls are for dummies
Most of the post-crack-scandal polls have shown Ford’s core support intact, confusing his unsinkable approval ratings with electability.
Largely lost in the reporting of those poll numbers is the fact that 60 to 65 per cent consistently say they won’t vote for Ford. Internal polling by those working behind the scenes on a Tory campaign show Ford’s support at 20 per cent. They’ll be looking to see what his numbers are post-ice-storm – a disaster from many per-spec-tives but Ford’s personal best per-formance of 2013. That’s a double-edged sword, though. The storm taught many that investment in public services is just as important as holding the line on spending.
The kicker: Ford’s numbers will go down, not up, when the debates begin. That’s because unlike last time, when there were five stock answers he kept refrying, there’s a record he’ll have to defend.
The man who rode into office declaring an end to the “gravy train” at City Hall will have some ‘splaining to do about his prolonged absences from work, his hanging with alleged drug dealer Lisi in city parks swilling vodka when average folk, the forklift drivers and factory workers who helped put him in office, were hard at work trying to provide for their families. Not to mention his use of taxpayer-paid staff to coach football, his calling on city Works crews to make road repairs outside the Ford family business in north Etobicoke, and the favours for big campaign do-nors who may have violated city environmental bylaws.
Yes, Ford delivered on privatized garbage and the sky didn’t fall. Yes, he delivered on union contracts. But s/he who defines the ballot box question wins. And if that question is “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” how many among the majority who voted for Ford last time will be able to answer in the affirmative?
Back in 2010, Ford had another advantage. He was the “change” candidate, the outsider despite being a career politician. He was something more: he was the anti-politician poli-tician. He doesn’t have that going for him this time.
The media is the message
Doug Ford, the mayor’s brother and campaign chair, may be right about one thing. Outside the City Hall bubble, “the people” may not care what the media think. When the Toronto Star was the only major daily watching Ford, he might have been right about that. A dutiful practitioner of the Big Lie propaganda technique, the elder Ford knows a thing or two about distorting the truth.
But the media at large are now speaking in a unified voice where Rob Ford is concerned. All the dailies have called for his resignation, which means they’ll all be endorsing someone else.
And with Doug calling the shots, the next train wreck is just around the corner. If Rob doesn’t screw up (and how likely is that?), Doug certainly will. When you’re flying by the seat of your pants, you’re bound to get ass-burn.
There’s still a reluctance on the part of the so-called “soft” Ford supporters to see the mayor for what he is. For the duration of every charm offensive, every “aw, shucks” shoulder-shrugging news conference, every rare moment when he lets the 300 pounds of fun shine through, it’s easy to forget his shortcomings, personal and political. For those supporters, the truth about Ford – that he wouldn’t think twice about backing over you in his SUV (I’m speaking politically here) – is still unbelievable.
But if there’s something bigger working against Ford in 2014, it’s our need to see the light at the end of the tunnel. The need for hope instead of negativity. The thirst for a more positive outlook than the us-versus-them malaise that’s characterized the Ford years. His rivals are already picking up on the theme of optimism, talking about looking beyond the distrac-tions and drama and getting on with making the city great.
The wild card
There’s no telling what effect the crack tape will have on Ford’s campaign if it ever gets released. For some it will confirm negative impres-sions. For others, it won’t mean a thing. But it’s safe to say that overall it’ll do more to hurt than help Ford’s re-election chances. He ran on a law-and-order agenda, after all. “What’s he doing fraternizing with gangbangers?” is not an inappropriate question.
Even more problematic for Ford is the prospect of criminal charges stemming from his involvement in efforts to retrieve the video. We know that bribery was involved.
And talk of the likelihood of charges has been on the increase, if the scuttlebutt making the rounds is right. The Crown attorney’s office has reportedly been involved in discussions on that front with the police.
It’s hard to know what to believe. Charges are a tricky political proposition for police. Whether it’s necessary to go that route may depend on where we are a few months from now when the dust has settled on a provincial election and anybody who’s going to get into the mayoral race has done so. Charges or no, for Ford it’s the fourth quarter and a long 100 yards to go.
enzom@nowtoronto.com | @enzodimatteo
