Ran into David Peterson at Queen’s Park on budget day, Thursday, May 2.
At first, I thought it might be an apparition. The spectre of the former Liberal premier has been hovering over the Pink Palace ever since Kathleen Wynne was sworn in.
It was Peterson who snatched power from the NDP, with whom he had governed in a successful coalition, in 1987, winning the second largest majority in the province’s history. And here we are in a similar scenario.
Current NDP leader Andrea Horwath, not wanting a repeat of those events, seems reluctant to enter into a formal coalition with the Libs. She’s prolonging the suspense over whether she’ll force an election, but time may be running out on that. Some notable Queen’s Park observers, among them constitutional lawyer Peter Russell, are calling her “pigheaded” and “foolish.” She can’t afford to be indecisive.
Horwath said after the budget was formally tabled on Thursday that she’d need more time to “consult” with Ontarians before deciding whether to support it. Up went the 1-800 number. It’s unclear if she’ll learn much that internal polling hasn’t already told her. She may surprise us. Did you notice that the “Getting Results” banner that used to be front and centre at NDP press conferences was replaced by a simple “Andrea Horwath” sign at Friday’s post-budget presser? For those looking for subtle signs….
Saturday the NDP leader was on a campaign-style stop at the Western Fair Farmers’ Market in London, where there were “lots of people with opinions on the budget,” according to a tweet from Horwath.
If you’re an NDPer, the budget is missing enough line items to make the case for an election.
There was some money for home care and youth employment programs – and, of course, the much-ballyhooed 15 per cent reduction in auto insurance premiums the NDP had called for – but precious little in the way of relief for hospitals, stretched-to-the-max education budgets or tuition relief for students.
Some of the social assistance reforms called for in the Frances Lankin-Munir Sheikh report made the final cut, but a 1 per cent increase in social assistance when the child poverty rate is 14 per cent isn’t much to crow about. Another glaring omission: that much-talked-about hike to the minimum wage.
The overarching emphasis was on cutting the deficit. Turns out that number will be nowhere near the $30 billion predicted by Don Drummond, the former bank economist who raised the spectre of Greece in Ontario when McGuinty brought him in to study the province’s finances a couple of years ago.
In fact, the deficit is $5 billion less than the $14.8 billion projected, and expected to dive further to $4.8 billion. That hasn’t discouraged the Libs from tightening the noose on spending, though, keeping overall annual increases at 1 per cent for the foreseeable future.
In fact, even after it slays the deficit in 2017, the Wynne government plans to restrict spending increases in all areas to 1 per cent per year until the province’s net debt-to-GDP ratio returns to the pre-recession level of 27 per cent. That number is at 40 per cent right now, so we’re in this for the long haul.
There are no proposed cuts to corporate taxes, “right now,” the budget stresses. But for all the talk of its concessions to the NDP, the budget was as much a tip to the PCs.
A compelling case could be made that with Wynne we’re getting a kinder austerity, but austerity nonetheless. When Rob Ford pronounces himself “happy,” you gotta wonder. Are we on the Path to Balance, as the Libs have termed their budget, or headed for another recession?
The Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives points out in its budget analysis that when the UK opted for austerity to fight its growing deficit, the second dip of a double-dip recession followed.
It’s been suggested that no one wants an election, that it would be a waste of time and money. There’s no assurance any one of the parties would win a majority, and we’d back to square one with a minority government.
That’s not so clear. Maybe it’s time to slay those fears of a PC government once and for all and put Horwath’s popularity to the test. The lingering uncertainty is not good for the economy.
Would Wynne’s budget have been more progressive had it not been motivated chiefly by a desire to keep the Liberals in power?
One line of Finance Minister Charles Sousa’s budget speech that did stick out had nothing to do with province’s finances at all. It was about what an “honour” and “privilege” it is for MPPs of all political stripes to serve the people of Ontario. Not sure if Sousa was trying to guilt-trip the opposition. But it was the only time during his speech that there was applause all around.
Indeed, the legislature can be an awe-inspiring place. The history of this province is writ large on its walls. We’re at another important moment right now.
A quick guide to Liberal budget highlights and lowlights
THE GOODIES
• $195 mil over two years For employment opportunities for 25,000 young people • $45 million Ontario Music Fund to support digital and record production
• Over $700 million by 2016 To reduce home care wait times
• Establishment of a partnership council on employment for people with disabilities
THE SHADOW OF AUSTERITY
• 1% per year Cap in annual program spending
• 3% Allowable rise in annual tuition fees
• Zero Growth in annual hospital base funding
• 2% Growth in annual health care spending
• $100 monthly Amount the Ontario Child Benefit will be increased – instead of the $200 promised in Lib poverty reduction plan
• Income testing of seniors’ drug costs
TOO LITTLE WAY TOO LATE
• 1% Hike in social assistance rate
• $14 Monthly top-up for single welfare recipients
• 0% Increase in the minimum wage, but an advisory panel on changing it will be set up
enzom@nowtoronto.com | @enzodimatteo
