Update (December 21, 2 pm): This story has been updated with lockdown restrictions and information from the provincial data modelling presentation.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford has announced Ontario will enter a “province-wide shutdown” on Boxing Day.
The new pandemic measures will take effect at 12:01 am on December 26 and last for at least 28 days in southern parts of the province and for 14 days in northern areas.
The move will suspend the colour-coded COVID-19 response framework.
Ford said COVID-19 cases are growing at an “alarming rate” and is now spreading from high-outbreak areas to areas with lower cases rates due to people travelling between regions.
Grocery stores and pharmacies will remain open with reduced capacity. All other retail must close but can continue providing curbside pickup and delivery services.
Box stores will continue operating at 25 per cent capacity and supermarkets will remain open at 50 per cent capacity. Indoor and outdoor dining is still banned.
Schools will switch to remote learning when the holiday break ends on January 4.
Most Ontario schools will then remain closed for in-person learning until January 11. Kindergarten to eighth grade students will return to in-class learning at that time.
High school students will continue remote learning and go back to class on January 25.
Schools in Algoma, North Bay Parry Sound, Northwestern, Porcupine, Sudbury, Thunder Bay and Timiskaming will resume in-class learning on January 11.
The government will provide emergency child-care for frontline workers during the school closures.
Here are some of the measures that will take effect as part of the province-wide shutdown on Boxing Day:
- Restricting indoor organized public events and social gatherings, except with members of the same household (the people you live with). Individuals who live alone may consider having exclusive close contact with one other household.
- Prohibiting in-person shopping in most retail settings – curbside pickup and delivery can continue. Discount and big box retailers selling groceries will be limited to 25 per cent capacity for in-store shopping. Supermarkets, grocery stores and similar stores that primarily sell food, as well as pharmacies, will continue to operate at 50 per cent capacity for in-store shopping.
- Restricting indoor access to shopping malls – patrons may only go to a designated indoor pickup area (by appointment only), essential retail stores that are permitted to be open (e.g. pharmacy, grocery store), or, subject to physical distancing and face covering requirements, to the food court for takeout purchases. Shopping malls may also establish outdoor designated pickup areas.
- Prohibiting indoor and outdoor dining. Restaurants, bars and other food or drink establishments will be permitted to operate by take out, drive-through, and delivery only.
“We’ve seen in other jurisdictions what out-of-control case loads and death loads look like,” Ford said. “I’m also extremely alarmed of reports of a new strain of COVID-19 that is much more contagious than what we’ve seen so far.”
Referencing the new strain in the United Kingdom that prompted European countries to ban travel to and from Britain, Ford urged Ottawa to secure the province’s borders.
“If they won’t act further, at minimum we need to test air travellers when they arrive at the airport. And if they don’t do it, we will do it ourselves if needed,” he said, explaining 63,000 air travellers are going “unchecked” through Pearson International Airport in Toronto.
Health Minister Christine Elliott also announced a new Ontario Small Business Support Grant that will provide minimum of $10,000 and up to $20,000 for businesses that can demonstrate “a revenue decline of at least 20 per cent when comparing monthly revenue in April 2019 and April 2020,” the government said.
Why Boxing Day?
Asked why the province was waiting until Boxing Day to impose stricter lockdown measures, Elliott said “these businesses do need the time to prepare for the lockdown.”
Earlier in the day in a data projection presentation, Ontario public health officials drew comparison to Melbourne, Australia and France, which introduced curfews and other measures to stop people from travelling around.
Asked about that level of response, Ford said he does not believe in imposing “draconian” measures.
“I’ve never believed in the police state,” he said. “I saw some draconian measures in Australia. They ended up getting the numbers down. They were in pretty bad shape there.”
Ford said the province will spend $12.5 million for a targeted strategy to reduce virus spread in 15 high-priority communities in Toronto, Peel Region, York Region, Durham Region and Ottawa.
“The funding will also allow for the hiring of community ambassadors to make people aware of available services and assistance, for coordination of increased testing opportunities and for the arrangement of wraparound supports for those who are COVID-positive,” the government said in a statement.
The province will also work with cities to establish isolation centres.
During the spring lockdown that began in mid-march, all non-essential businesses, non-essential workplaces and schools were closed.
Over the weekend, Ford held emergency meetings with ministers and hospital CEOs to discuss stricter measures.
Ontario confirmed 2,123 new COVID-19 cases on December 21, marking a full week of daily case growth above 2,000. Ontario has 915 COVID-19 patients requiring acute care, 265 patients in intensive care, with 152 on ventilators.
“Very strong growth potential”
During a presentation at Queen’s Park this morning, Adalsteinn Brown, co-chair of Ontario’s COVID-19 science advisory table, said under all scenarios – including zero per cent case growth – intensive care unit patients will cross the 300 mark.
Under the worst case of seven per cent growth, there will be 1,500 ICU patients in Ontario hospitals by mid-January – occupying 75 per cent of the province’s overall ICU capacity.
These patients will be clustered heavily in hotspot regions, he added.
Brown said the province is in a place with “very strong growth potential” in new COVID-19 cases.
“We have seen consistent low-level growth really for the last two months,” he said. “This continued low-level growth is just adding greater and greater pressures and removing our ability to control the growth of the pandemic.
“If you just look out on any of the streets in downtown Toronto, the amount of street traffic is much higher than you would see during the spring,” he added. “It’s like it was in January or February – not like it was in April.”
Brown said outbreaks are expected to continue in long-term care homes, as well as other congregate settings and in neighbourhoods with high case rates that are home to essential workers.
Any new measures the province introduces must come with more resources for testing and support for people who need to isolate and quarantine, he said. That includes getting testing results back quickly, which he said is “is critical to controlling the disease.”
The per cent positivity rate – the percentage of COVID-19 tests with positive results – remains highest among the most vulnerable groups, he said.
With a one per cent increase in case growth the province is on track to see 3,000 new cases per day and a mortality rate of 50 deaths per day by mid-February.
Two weeks ago, data projections showed Ontario was on track to have 5,000 daily new COVID-19 cases but current restrictions have slowed case growth.
Hospitals in the province are starting to cancel or delay scheduled surgeries due to a rise in COVID-19 patients.
Lockdown comparisons to Australia and France
Brown drew comparisons to four-to-six-week “hard lockdowns” in France and Victoria, Australia where strict measures, including curfews and police checkpoints, coupled with clear public health communication succeeded in reducing virus spread.
He said a hard lockdown could help drop Ontario’s daily case count to below 1,000 cases per day. Achieving this would require increased testing and contract tracing as well, Brown said.
Without further action from the province, “you’ll likely see continued case growth and a great risk of accelerated case growth,” he said.
If Ontario’s new lockdown measures last four weeks, cases will drop to below 2,000 per day and if measures last six weeks, daily cases will dip below 1,000, he said.
“Cases will continue to grow for a period of time,” he explained. “Then the decline in contacts between people will start to take over and cases will start to come down. The duration of the lockdown has a very big effect.”
However, if there is strong case growth during the holiday weekend, cases in Ontario could still hit 5,000 per day and it will take 50 per cent longer to see a decline, he added.
“We’re in a very, very challenging and precarious situation,” said Ontario’s Associate Medical Officer of Health Barbara Yaffe. “We do need to have measures that will reduce people interacting with other people that don’t live in their household.”
Second wave lockdown measures in Ontario to date
Toronto, Peel Region, York Region and Windsor-Essex are in the grey zone of the provincial COVID-19 response framework. Hamilton entered the grey zone just after midnight today.
On Friday, Ford extended lockdown in Toronto and Peel Region until January 4 as Toronto Mayor John Tory and hospital officials called for stricter measures across the GTA.
The measures forced the closure of most retail, hair salons, museums and other businesses, but hardware stores, box stores, film productions, personal services such as massage therapy and schools continue to operate.
The temporary lockdown measures in Toronto and Peel have slowed COVID-19 case growth but have not led to a decline in virus spread. Daily case growth in Ontario hovered around 2,300 over the weekend.
Since the lockdown measures took effect in Toronto and Peel Region in late November, Toronto’s COVID-19 cases grew by 37.5 per cent to 127.5 cases per 100,000 people, the government has said. Peel’s case rate went up 8.6 per cent to 199.1 cases per 100,000 people.
During COVID-19 data forecasting presentation on December 11, public health officials said there would be more than 200 COVID-19 patients in intensive care units for the next month.
