Jack Layton stood at the bar swirling some red wine in a glass.
The scene was the Revival on College election night. Only, not federal election night last Monday, but October 25, 2010, the night Rob Ford stunned the pundits and began what would mark the right’s re-emergence in Toronto.
Layton stood alone. Lost in his thoughts. For the moment, there were none of the usual well-wishers or those naturally attracted to the NDP leader’s enthusiasm around to steal a few minutes of his time. Most of those in the room were busy congratulating Joe Pantalone, the left’s standard bearer in the mayoral race, for a job well done.
Layton, some weeks removed from treatments for the prostate cancer he was diagnosed with earlier in the year, was in a contemplative mood. His son, Mike Layton, had just won the race for a council seat in Trinity-Spadina, the same one the federal NDP leader won to launch his political career all those years ago.
Whatever the future would hold for Layton, the reins had been passed on. That was the most important thing on this night. Layton drank in the moment, and the wine still left in his glass.
In the context of Layton’s personal journey, the NDP’s unlikely rise to opposition party status in #elxn41 is even more remarkable. Perhaps it’s all a bit or karmic payback for the man most just call Jack.
Throughout it all, the cancer and political travails, the whispers early on in the campaign about his health, Layton stood bravely, pumping the positive and the need to throw out the old way of doing politics in Ottawa.
That frame served the NDP well during the election – women voters flocked to the NDP leaders upbeat message – and while the party occupied third party status to win modest but important changes to employment insurance, for example.
But arguably, the NDP are in a less influential position in opposition with 100-plus seats than they were with 30-odd seats and holding the balance of power in the House pre-writ.
The Conservatives have their majority and, if past history is any indication, will use it to implement a cost-cutting, smaller government agenda. The PM, of course, is making all the right noises about governing for all the people. Don’t believe it.
The HarperCons can afford to offer up a little lip service. With a majority they know there’s no stopping them now. How the Cons will consolidate their political gains remains to be seen. But it’s doubtful the NDP’s priorities, outside of more transfers for health to the province, will be part of the Cons’ calculus.
Layton is a skilled politician. Perhaps he can finagle important changes for working families. That promise to lower credit card rates would be a good place to start. As would taking the cash the Cons are setting aside for corporate tax cuts for say economic stimulus.
But if the job of the loyal opposition is to oppose the government, then the balancing act will be a finer one for Layton and Co. What changes will the party be able to wrest from that budget it didn’t see fit to support pre-election?
The NDP’s biggest stick is Quebec, where the party controls all but a dozen seats. But the Cons won’t be that interested in doing any favours for that province. The Cons made a tactical decision to focus on Ontario to win its majority early in the campaign. Cutting off la belle province won’t be a stretch for all those Reformatories in Harp’s caucus. Maybe the PM is thinking ahead and has other plans to win back a few seats in Quebec next time around. Rest assured, though, that it’ll be the PM and not the NDP taking credit for any boosts to Quebec, or anywhere else for that matter.
Perhaps the NDP can win much-needed cash for Toronto, which would be a welcome change from the Fiberals, who did nothing when they were in government.
But how will the NDP view federal cash for say, Rob Ford’s subways? Will it take the position that any money spent on transit is good money? Do costly subways fit in the NDP’s vision of a “reliable” and “affordable” national public transit strategy?
And what about the Cons’ crime and punishment agenda? The NDP has creeped closer to the Cons on the law and order front, calling for the hiring of more cops during the campaign. The NDP has also been and front and centre with the Cons on a new law that will allow shop owners to hold shoplifters, after the highly-publicized case of Chinatown shop owner David Chen.
The NDP’s stance on legal pot has softened, too. Layton suggested during the campaign that more powerful strains of weed these days may require a rethink of pot laws, which in the Cons’ omnibus crime bill may mean jail for first-time offenders.
Layton understands that politics is the art of compromise. But the give and take game the NDP played to win huge electoral games will be harder to sell in opposition.
For an NDP leader who has already faced a year full of personal uncertainty, however, it doesn’t get any better than this.
