Another day in #elxn41. Another public opinion poll.
Isn’t it about time we ditched the numbers game?
Maybe it’s about time they’re banned, at least, the daily diet of them.
Political parties leaders will tell you they don’t pay attention to polls. Don’t believe it. Our whole electoral system has become predicated, right down to what most politicians say, on polls.
They’ve become a tool to push more than one to gauge public opinion, also know in the current state of political discourse as forming the ballot question.
The political pundits, those among the Ottawa press corp in particular who are the opinion makers in this country, are supposed to tell us what the polls mean.
But, of course, they interpret the numbers through their own political prism.
Where once polls were a sidelight to elections, released here and there during different points in a race, a snapshot, if you will, they’ve now become a daily fixture.
So, instead of a discussion of the issues, the daily analysis becomes overwhelmingly about the poll numbers, and what the latest poll results mean for party strategy.
What’s the public thinking while the pundits play inside baseball? It’s one big dis to the voters, who understandably are feeling disheartened, disaffected and disenfranchised as a result.
In the last week, three different polling firms reported wildly differing numbers on the current federal election.
COMPAS had the Conservatives 21 per cent ahead of the Libs (Sun Media reported that. A coincidence?). Nanos, widely accepted as the most accurate pollster, had the Conservatives ahead by 10 per cent and Ekos had the Conservatives by a little less than that over the Libs. The NDP numbers have been steady at about 19 per cent.
Whose numbers to trust? The contradictions are many, the room for confusion ever-growing.
While polls seek to survey a cross section of Canadians from across the country, the regional priorities get lost in the mix when the overall numbers are crunched.
Health care, for example, is the biggest issue in B.C. The economy, though, is just as important in Ontario.
The guy whose party was found in contempt of Parliament is somehow leading in the leadership index. He’s also the most trusted, according to the polls. Really?
Ekos has been telling a different story.
Its polling suggests that ethics and accountability issues are what’s preoccupying Canadians, which would seem logical given the spate of controversies and scandals surrounding the Conservatives, which have only continued during the campaign.
Ekos suggests a Harper majority is unattainable. In fact, the Conservatives are facing the prospect of losing a few seats, says Ekos, which would seem in step with the party’s dipping trendlines in Quebec and, to a lesser extent, the GTA.
Still, the prevailing wisdom is that a majority is within reach for the Conservatives.
How should voters and readers assess that conclusion, given all the other conflicting info out there?
It made me want to throw a brick through a window, but probably made others decide the race is over and off to the polls they go to vote Conservative – or not vote at all if a Conservative majority is a foregone conclusion.
From where I sit, the Conservatives have some reason to be worried. That may just be the Mao in me talking, but here’s why:
Ontario may no longer be the important battleground. Enter Quebec. Harp’s crew can’t rely on federalist votes going their way like they did last time in that province. Also, the strengthening NDP vote in the province may end up talking votes from the Bloc and seeing more Libs returned.
Out west there are some 10 seats in play in B.C., and across the prairies a handful of tough races with the NDP that the Conservatives just won last time. The Grits who stayed home last time, are more motivated this time. So is the youth vote.
The big variable threatening to whittle away at the Conservatives: the percentage of voters who think the government is on the wrong track is climbing.
And there hasn’t been a day in this campaign when the Conservatives haven’t had a brush fire to put out. If it isn’t candidates with ties to terrorist orgs, it’s leaked reports over MPs lining their ridings with G20 cash or a blow up over getting “ethnics” to make photo ops.
Doesn’t sound like a party deserving of a majority to me, but the polls seem to be telling us differently.
