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Post-election reality check

Some odds, ends and in-betweens from the provincal elections.

Fordspeak 101

The mayor took the airwaves Friday to declare the McGuinty minority “excellent” for Toronto. Cue the Bill and Ted air guitar. A minority Grit government is better than a majority where Ford is concerned, that’s for sure. And arguably, the Grits owe Ford. As counter intuitive as that statement may seem, if it wasn’t for the backlash in T.O. over his administration’s service cuts, the Grits might be looking at a more precarious hold on T.O. But there’s nothing “excellent” about a Lib minority for Ford. The last thing the Libs want is to make him look good.

Star crossed

Linda Diebel’s post-election post-mortem in the Star included some interesting quotes from both Liberal and Tory strategists on the question of how Hudak’s PCs “lost” the election. It may be more accurate to say that the Grits actually “won,” given the 20-point deficit the party overcame. But let’s not quibble over the Star’s emphasis on the wrong syllable. The fat asses quoted in Diebel’s story and pretending to know what happened chalked up Hudak’s lose, er, lackluster campaign, to some high-falutin notion of failed strategy. It goes something like, Tim’s a nice guy (really), but those around him calling the shots, made the mistake of going negative. Attila the Hudak, of course, could have told his advisers to flock off. But the truth about the PC leader is that there’s no progressive in his conservatism. Perhaps aforementioned fat asses didn’t notice Timmy happens to be married to one of the nastiest political operators in the business, former Mike Harris chief of staff Deb Hutton. Hard to miss her. She was on the campaign trail.

Big question

Will anyone among the PCs or NDPers defect to the Libs to give them the one seat they need for a majority? McGuinty has dismissed such talk, figuring he can take a page out of Stephen Harper’s playbook and govern with a minority. But I’m told that names are being discussed, only those are far too sensitive to mention for the purposes of print. The last thing a potential convert would want is his or her name showing up in print as a defector. But dark clouds are on the horizon. Managing the economy will present a number of tricky challenges for McGuinty, especially if that much-feared double-dip recession occurs. He probably doesn’t have the time to wait for a by-election to get to the coveted 54 seats.

The problem with polls

Election 2011 featured some bizarre polling results, including one of highly questionable methodology putting the PCs ahead by nine points with two weeks to go, while most of the other surveys consistently showed a few points lead for the Libs. Another pollster predicted a race to close to call the day prior to the election, only to change that prediction a few hours later. What gives? One variable the surveys may be missing is the immigrant vote, or non-English-speaking segment of the population who receive robo calls but simply hang up because they don’t speak English.

Strange surprise

Voter turnout. An historic low – below 50 per cent. Odd in the extreme given the unease about the economy and jobs and the fact early returns showed higher than usual numbers at advanced polls. Are voters that disaffected? Bad news for democracy.

Strange surprise part two

That NDP leader Andrea Horwath didn’t stick a fork in Anthony Marco sooner. Marco was the candidate caught up in that controversy over his strange Nazi musings. It’s not like Marco stood any chance of victory. He was a sacrificial lamb for the NDP, in PC leader Tim Hudak’s Niagara riding.

Weird scene

George Smitherman showing up election night as a talking head on CTV. Seems that radio gig on Newstalk after Smitherman’s failed run for mayor didn’t quite pan.Freaky listening to Smitherman parse what went wrong with Hudak’s run. Wasn’t he the guy who was ahead of the competition by miles before blowing it? Smitherman hasn’t ruled out a political comeback, but the chances of that happening seem more remote than ever.

Eco contradictions

For the party that cast itself as the greenest, and had David Suzuki’s endorsement to prove it, the Grits had plenty of juggling to do on the eco file. Among the issues left simmering on the backburner: the fate of the Mississauga gas plant mothballed to win votes the blowback over wind farms in rural Ontario and plans for a mega quarry near Shelburne.

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