I’m tempted not to say it, but got to.
The phat fuck did it.
Phat as in cool, folks, just in case there’s any misunderstanding.
Rob Ford, mayor of Toronto. Doesn’t exactly roll of the beer-soaked tongue, but… that’s what it is.
Your trusty correspondent on all things political is eating crow tonight, or shit, depending on your perspective.
But I should have seen this thing coming.
I was in the old neighbourhood Saturday, to enjoy a belated Thanksgiving dinner with the parental units and all I saw on the way were Ford for Mayor signs.
Yes, even in my private Idaho growing up, the working class neighbourhood on St. Clair West where everyone votes Liberal, the Hun was making his mark.
This morning, the idea of a Ford win was reinforced. Out of nowhere, an inexplicable pall came over me when I woke up to greet the new day. I knew then I’d go to bed tonight to a very different Toronto. Such is politics.
I blame the economy. I blame George Smitherman.
Curious. Furious. The heir apparent, error apparent now, has done the unexpected and blown his chance at the highest office in the land next to being PM. With it has gone the seeds of promise sewn by David Miller.
How could it be so?
Smitherman set the wrong moral tone in this campaign, playing to a city’s worst instincts rather than setting a more positive tone. When it suited him he veered right. Then, when he needed Joe Pantalone’s votes late in the contest to help take him over the top, he declared himself the only choice for progressives. Too late.
He presided over an uneven and, at times, lackluster campaign marked by more ups and downs and uninspired political rhetoric than could have ever been imagined for a guy whose political trajectory has been off the scales.
In the end, tough, voters were left confused. In answer to the big question: what does George Smitherman stand for? No one could answer with any certainty.
Judging by the numbers – not even a last-minute abandonment of the left of Joe Pants would have helped Smitherman win – voters do not fear the spectre of a Ford mayoralty.
Historically, mayors have been pre-ordained in this town, the money following the choice of the chattering classes. It’s a well-worn path, municipal politics more often than not being more about money and organization than anything else. Those with the most money and organization, or so the theory goes, usually win.
And it certainly looked early on like Smitherman would follow that script when money bags Ralph Lean lined up behind him and not one John Tory (remember him?)
But something odd happened on the way to the coronation. A guy named Ford bullied his way into the discussion, carrying a message of doom and gloom and promising (if unrealistically) to stop the so-called “gravy train.”
Pundits and political observers alike have chalked up Ford’s popularity to a sense of alienation felt in the burbs post-amalgamation. Some have attributed Ford’s surge to the anti-government anger motivating the Tea Party’s rise south of the border. Not quite.
The sleeper issue of the 2010 municipal election campaign motivating the Ford forces was/is the economy. It barely rated a mention in most analysis of this race (save for one poll in the Globe early on) but it’s clearly on the minds of voters. Can you say spend, spend, spend, tax, tax, tax?
How else to explain Ford’s rise? Clearly the city is not, as he has been saying throughout the campaign, going to hell in a hand basket. There’s ample evidence of that in the praise being garnered by T.O. at the UN and noted magazines like Forbes. Look up in the sky. They’re full of cranes. The city building continues.
But there is a grave sense of uncertainty about the double dip recession taking root in the U.S. finding its way north of the border. Already fuel prices are past pre-recession levels and housing prices tanking. Turbulent times loom.
For Ford, the challenge is clear. What kind of mayor will we see? The kind he’s promised. It will not be pretty folks.
Gridlock looms.
“It will be written that I lost an election that was mine to win,” said Smitherman in his concession speech. And so it is.
