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Beaches-East York
Riding breakdown Population: 108,840 total visible minority: 31,750 total immigrant: 38,460 average household income: $64,223.
Main challengers Grit incumbent Maria Minna, NDP MPP Marilyn Churley.
2004 results Minna (22,494) comfortably over NDP’s Pater Tabuns (15,156).
Hot buttons Environment and Minna’s mediocre record.
X-factors Changing demographics in south end may bleed Liberal votes to the Tories, and Green party head Jim Harris may pull votes away from Churley.
Davenport
Riding breakdown Population: 111,700 total visible minority: 35,130 total immigrant: 61,055 average annual household income: $52,579.
Main challengers Grit incumbent Mario Silva, eco activist Gord Perks for the NDP.
2004 results Silva (16,773) over low-profile NDPer Rui Pires (11,292).
Hot buttons St. Clair streetcar right-of-way. Silva coming out of the closet – it’s turning off the homophobes in his Portuguese base. Gun crime. Immigration.
X-factors Liberal fatigue. NDP’s Perks winning sign wars in areas of traditional Grit support.
Don Valley East
Riding breakdown Population: 111,175 total visible minority: 59,420 total immigrant: 65,635 average annual household income: $61,813.
Main challengers Liberal incumbent Yasmin Ratansi, Tory law-and-order candidate Eugene McDermott.
2004 results Ratansi (21,864) in a cakewalk over former Harris-era Tory cabinet minister Dave Johnson (11,206).
Hot buttons Grits’ Chinese head tax debacle – Chinese-Canadians make up the largest visible-minority voting bloc in the riding (15,920).
X-factors Ratansi’s invisibility in the riding. Where tenant vote goes – more than half the residents here rent.
Don Valley West
Riding breakdown Population: 115,540 total visible minority: 45,090 total immigrant: 51,655 average annual household income: $110,393.
Main challengers John Godfrey for the Grits, auto exec John Carmichael for the Tories.
2004 results Godfrey (30,615) stormed over former Harris-era cabinet minister David Turnbull (14,495).
Hot buttons WASPy red Tories voting Liberal.
X-factors Godfrey’s personal popularity. (Mayor David Miller endorsing him doesn’t hurt either.)
Eglinton-Lawrence
Riding breakdown Population: 106,875 total visible minority: 22, 340 total immigrant: 40,740 average annual household income: $92,914.
Main challengers Immigration Minister Joe Volpe, family-values Tory Peter Coy.
2004 results Volpe (28,360) cruised over Tory unknown Bernie Tanz (11,792).
Hot buttons Grits’ voting record on Israel at the UN – large bloc of Jewish voters (24,435) here.
X-factors Volpe’s delusional leadership aspirations, flip-flop on gay marriage and remarks equating Tories to KKK.
Etobicoke Centre
Riding breakdown Population: 111,790 total visible minority: 24,725 total immigrant: 46,750 average annual household income: $83,593.
Main challengers Grit incumbent Borys Wrzesnewskyj takes on Tory technology and health care exec Axel Kuhn.
2004 results Wrzesnewskyj (30,441) won handily over the PCs’ Lida Preyma (14,829).
Hot buttons Tories weren’t able to lasso a local conservative with profile like Councillor Gloria Lindsay Luby to run. Seniors and new Canadians, who make up 19 and 42 per cent of riding’s voters respectively.
X-factors Incumbent doesn’t have Mayor Miller’s endorsement this time around.
Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Riding breakdown Population: 113,910 total visible minority: 21,560 total immigrant: 44,410 average annual household income: $70,944.
Main challengers Grit outsider Michael Ignatieff versus Tory Common Sense revolutionary John Capobianco.
2004 results Long-time Grit incumbent Jean Augustine (24,909) outdistanced Capobianco (15,159).
Hot buttons The Grits parachuting Ignatieff in to run in Augustine’s place. Ignatieff’s support for U.S. war in Iraq driving lefty Libs away. Hill and Knowlton VP Capobianco’s Mike Harris connections.
X-factors Well-connected Grit Bruce Davis deciding not to run as an independent. NDP made a respectable show with 7,179 votes last time.
Etobicoke North
Riding breakdown Population:112,410 total visible minority: 70,010 total immigrant: 62,565 average annual household income: $56,463.
Main challengers Incumbent Grit Roy Cullen against NDP first-timer Ali Naqvi.
2004 results Cullen (19,450) in a cakewalk over Tory challenger Rupinder Nannar (5,737).
Hot buttons Gun violence – among the hardest-hit areas in the city. Voter turnout – the lowest in the country.
X-factors South Asians who vote overwhelmingly Liberal. The black vote – the candidate who can get it out (blacks make up almost 20 per cent of the population here) can win.
Parkdale-High Park
Riding breakdown Population: 106,560 total visible minority: 28,070 total immigrant: 44,745 average annual household income: $61,591.
Main challengers Liberal Sarmite Bulte against NDP’s Peggy Nash.
2004 results Bulte (19,727) in a close one over Nash (16,201).
Hot buttons Recording industry execs pushing tougher copyright laws holding $250-a-plate fundraiser for Bulte, a possible heritage minister. Nash’s CAW boss, Buzz Hargrove, promoting the Grits nationally.
X-factors Younger demographics and weakened Greens – original candidate Hayley Easto resigned citing party’s inability “to respond to calls for transparency and accountability” – boosting NDP’s fortunes. Mayor Miller’s endorsement of Nash.
Scarborough-Agincourt
Riding breakdown Population: 110,670 total visible minority: 76,195 total immigrant: 70,315 average annual household income: $62,836.
Main challengers Grit Jim Karygiannis versus Tory first-timer Bill Redwood.
2004 results Karygiannis (26,400) in a landslide over Tory pretender Andrew Faust (8,649).
Hot buttons Liberals’ bungling of Chinese head tax issue – Chinese Canadians make up whopping 40 per cent of the riding. The threatened closure of departments at Scarborough Grace, which has put health care on the front burner.
X-factors Karygiannis’s woeful parliamentary record – he’s got little to show after 17 years in Ottawa.
Scarborough Centre
Riding breakdown Population: 102,810 total visible minority: 52,590 total immigrant: 53,305 average annual household income: $56,667.
Main challengers Grit John Cannis takes on family-values Tory Roxanne James.
2004 results Cannis (20,740) had no trouble besting Tory John Mihtis (8,515).
Hot buttons Gun violence. Same-sex marriage.
X-factors Cannis’s efforts to keep members of suspected terrorist Khadr family out of Canada. South Asian voters, who make up the largest visible minority group here.
Scarborough-Guildwood
Riding breakdown Population: 112,630 total visible minority: 60,395 total immigrant: 56,595 average annual household income: $55,304.
Main challengers Grit John McKay faces Mulroney-era cabinet minister Pauline Browes.
2004 results McKay (20,950) coasted to victory over Tory Tom Varesh (8,277).
Hot buttons Crime. Political baggage Browes is carrying.
X-factors McKay’s personal popularity – and the fact that his views on most issues are more in line with those of the Conservative party than the Liberals, which is not a negative here against rising Tory tide.
Scarborough-Rouge River
Riding breakdowns Population: 115,430 total visible minority: 97,400 total immigrant: 76,890 average annual household income: $65,929.
Main challengers Grit Derek Lee against Tory small businessman Jerry Bance.
2004 results Another Grit landslide – Lee (22,564) over independent Raymond Cho (6,962), with Tory Tony Backhurst a close third (5,184).
Hot buttons Gun crime, particularly in Malvern area. Immigration. Chinese head tax. (Chinese Canadians make up riding’s largest voting bloc).
X-factors No strong independent running this time. Air India investigation – South Asians make up one-quarter of the area’s voters. Tories are running Punjab-born Bance.
Scarborough Southwest
Riding breakdown Population: 105,345 total visible minority: 45,390 total immigrant: 46,395 average annual household income: $55,294.
Main challengers Grit Bible-thumper Tom Wappel against local boy and NDPer Dan Harris.
2004 results Wappel (18,776) handily over Tory star Heather Jewell (9,028), with NDPer Harris a close third (8,471).
Hot buttons Gun violence. Childcare. Samesex marriage.
X-factors Weak Tory Vincent Veerasuntharam should mean more votes for Harris, who doubled his support in 2004 and is running for the third time here. Wappel’s maddening political hold on Protestant and Catholic voters.
St. Paul’s
Riding breakdown Population: 112,370 total visible minority: 24,470 total immigrant: 40,760 average annual household income: $92,267.
Main challengers Grit incumbent Carolyn Bennett up against Tory Peter Kent and NDPer Paul Summerville.
2004 results Bennett (32,171) creamed Tory Barry Cline (11,226), and the NDP’s Norman Tobias came in a respectable third (8,667).
Hot buttons Health care. New deal for cities. Libs’ voting record on Israel at the UN.
X-factors How many votes Kent and Greens can take from Bennett. Major gains would help Summerville, who’s winning the sign wars – and traditional Lib votes – in the western working-class end of the riding largely ignored by the other two candidates.
Toronto Centre
Riding breakdown Population: 114,680 total visible minority: 46,755 total immigrant: 48,585 average annual household income: $82,571.
Main challengers Grit Foreign Affairs Minister Bill Graham versus housing activist and NDPer Michael Shapcott. Tories are running securities broker Lewis Reford.
2004 results Graham (30,336) got more than twice as many votes as NDP challenger Shapcott (12,747) Tory Megan Harris finished a distant third (7,936).
Hot buttons Crime. Health care. Same-sex marriage. Graham’s less than stellar performance in Foreign Affairs.
X-factors Same-sex marriage. Lack of star candidate for the NDP – say, someone like Kyle Rae. Harper’s promise to reopen same-sex marriage debate hurts Reford among gay constituents in south end who might otherwise be tempted to vote Tory.
Toronto-Danforth
Riding breakdown Population: 109,715 total visible minority: 39,160 total immigrant: 45,705 average annual household income: $61,154.
Main challengers NDP leader Jack Layton against Lib parachute candidate Deborah Coyne.
2004 results Layton (22,198) in a close one over long-time Liberal incumbent Dennis Mills (19,803).
Hot buttons Waterfront. Libs parachuting in Coyne, who doesn’t even live in the city, let alone the riding. Grumbling that Layton’s campaigning nationally is keeping him out of the riding.
X-factors Coyne has Mills’s machine. Greens’ Harris moving over to run next door in Beaches-East York. Layton’s immense popularity – especially among Chinese-Canadian voters, who make up largest visible-minority voting bloc here – and the fact that party leaders seldom lose.
Trinity-Spadina
Riding breakdown Population: 106,085 total visible minority: 36,805 total immigrant: 46,620 average annual household income: $69,834.
Main challengers Grit incumbent Tony Ianno against former local councillor and NDP candidate Olivia Chow.
2004 results Ianno (23,202) in a squeaker over Chow (22,397), with Tory David Watters (4,605) pulling up the rear.
Hot buttons Waterfront. Island Airport. Chinese head tax. Ianno’s campaign donations. Lib blogger Mike Klander’s racist crack about Chow.
X-factors Condo owners in south end of the riding, who went Liberal last time. Libs’ failure to apologize and compensate Chinese head tax survivors coming back to bite Ianno hard. Tories stealing Liberal votes. Greens’ Thom Chapman, a late entry, not as strong as 2004 candidate. Liberal fortunes sinking in Ontario. Chow’s husband, Jack Layton, being NDP leader.
Willowdale
Riding breakdown Population: 108,670 total visible minority: 54,575 total immigrant: 60,510 average annual household income: $74,952.
Main challengers Grit Jim Peterson versus Tory Jovan Boseovski, who’s back for a second shot here. The NDP is running visible minority candidate Rochelle Carnegie, daughter of famous black hockey star Herb.
2004 results Peterson (30,855) over Boseovski (11,615), with NDP’s Yvonne Bobb (4,812) a distant third.
Hot buttons Taxes. Health care.
X-factors Peterson’s cabinet credentials (he’s minister of international trade). Chinese head tax issue – Chinese Canadians make up almost 30 per cent of riding’s residents.
York Centre
Riding breakdown Population: 113,195 total visible minority: 34,735 total immigrant: 64,510 average annual household income: $59,242.
Main challengers Grit MP Ken Dryden versus Tory Michael Mostyn, who’s back for another shot.
2004 results Dryden (21,520) two to one over Mostyn (10,318), with NDPer Peter Flaherty (5,376) pulling up the rear.
Hot buttons Crime. Immigration. Libs’ voting record on Israel at the UN. Childcare. Downsview Park (not yet a park.)
X-factors Health care (area boasts highest percentage of seniors of any riding in the city). Jewish-Italian split in the riding that usually votes Liberal. Dryden’s star power. The odd company Mostyn keeps with pro-U.S. and Israeli-government groups. Liberal fatigue.
York South-Weston
Riding breakdown Population: 114,530 total visible minority: 54,005 total immigrant: 61,085 average annual household income: $47,386.
Main challengers Grit incumbent Alan Tonks versus NDP’s Paul Ferreira.
2004 results Tonks (20,537) handily over NDP challenger Ferreira (7,281), with Tory Stephen Halicki (5,133) a very distant third.
Hot buttons Crime. Immigration. Proposed Union Station-Pearson Airport rail link. New deal for cities. Housing.
X-factors Riding’s NDP roots go back to Donald McDonald, Bob Rae, all the way to the CCF. Black vote – they make up the largest visible minority (20,055) but usually don’t vote. Tonks’s Tory friends, 30-year history in the area and lacklustre performance in Ottawa.
York West
Riding breakdown Population: 110,385 total visible minority: 69,130 total immigrant: 67,360 average annual household income: $47,532.
Main challengers Former cabinet minister Judy Sgro versus community activist and educator Sandra Romano Anthony for the NDP.
2004 results Sgro (17,903) easily over NDP’s Romano Anthony (4,228), with Tories’ Leslie Soobrian (3,120) third.
Hot buttons Crime. Immigration. Sgro’s forced resignation from cabinet after “Strippergate” fiasco.
X-factors Homeowners (15,045) who vote and tenants (19,785) who don’t. How much of the black vote (20,055) visible minority candidate Romano Anthony can pull.
Compiled by NOW staff news@nowtoronto.com
