Let the games begin. Or more precisely, welcome to the silly season.
It was the summer of our discontent, if you’re gauging the ongoing speculation over who’ll run against David Miller next November.
The Star’s been eager to find someone, anyone, to take up the charge against Miller, running half a dozen stories in recent weeks and suggesting on the front page Saturday that Liberal MPP George Smitherman is all but a lock to challenge the mayor.
Smitherman hasn’t confirmed anything, mind you. The fact that he’s now not denying an interest in the job seems to be good enough for the Star. Maybe the Star knows something we don’t.
But I can’t see a challenge from Smitherman. He’s that close to the leadership of the provincial Liberal party. Scandal-tainted McGuinty, showing signs of wear and tear after almost a decade at the helm and consecutive majorities, doesn’t have much left in the tank. It’s probably time for a fresh face.
But hey, the Star pulls a lot of weight in this town.
The way they’ve been beating the anti-Miller drum, we shouldn’t be too surprised if Smitherman’s people are whispering a little louder in his ear about going for it while the getting’s good ie: while he’s got the largest circulation paper in the country calling on him to make the jump.
McGuinty may not be ready to give up the throne just yet. In which case, a few years at the helm of the country’s biggest city may seem like an opportune diversion in the meantime for Smitherman.
Smitherman wouldn’t be the first politician to let advisers steer him in the wrong direction.
Question is, can he carry the vote?
Curious George can expect some tough slogging outside of his Rosedale and gay village constituency, where he’s an unknown. He may eat into Miller’s downtown base some, but what about the ‘burbs?
Smitherman’s not exactly a known quantity outside the downtown core, unless you’re talking his years as minister of health, which weren’t exactly stellar. He’s acquitted himself more impressively as minister of energy, some would argue.
But its been a long time since his day as a staffer for former mayor Barb Hall.
Miller, meanwhile, has proven in the last two runoffs that his popularity doesn’t end at Bloor Street, besting his main rivals in the last two run offs, despite the conventional wisdom that they, not Miller enjoyed wider appeal in bedroom enclaves of the city.
Miller’s been hurt by some negative press coverage for his handling of the city workers strike, no doubt. Municipal politics can be unkind to visionaries like Miller. The mayor likes to say that Torontonians “get it”, whatever the “it” is he’s trying to sell.
I’m not so sure. The masses, at least the 30 per cent who vote in municipal elections, seem too easily seduced by loudmouth, simpletons. The kind who’ll cut ribbons and attend funerals and make sure the garbage is picked up. Waterfront renewal, what’s that?
But just who are these people in the background urging Smitherman to run? Surely not the band of power-hungry crooks who’ve been running this town from the backrooms for too long? They know who they are.
The talks that reportedly have been going on between Smitherman and Tory over who will be the one to run against Miller suggests some of the old Conservative party bagmen are lurking somewhere in the weeds. In which case, what’s the quid pro quo for their supporting Smitherman? Just who’ll be pulling Smitherman’s strings?
Would be interesting to know which fellow Liberals are backing Smitherman.
Miller, despite the NDP label critics want to hang on him, (he hasn’t held a party card for some time) has had more than a few Liberals in his camp, chief among them heavyweight Peter Donolo, former director of communications for Jean Chretien.
More importantly for Miller, Donolo’s also an ex director of the Board of Trade, a crucial link to this city’s business community who, truth be told, haven’t done too badly under Miller.
The mayor counts more than a few friends among the Grits at Queen’s Park, too, judging by the cash he’s been able to squeeze out of the province for city projects. See Union Station. See Transit City. See waterfront redo. No easy feat in the challenging economic climate we now live in.
A lot can happen between now and the new year, when candidates can start raising funds. Look for those trial balloons. No doubt, we’ll soon see a poll suggesting Smitherman can beat Miller. But I wouldn’t bet against Miller. He was down big time when he won the first time in 2003. Despite some bruising, he’s got a record he can run on and is a crack debater.
The wild card’s Tory. Contrary to media reports, I’m thinking those behind Tory want Smitherman to run so he can split the centre left vote with Miller and give Tory, who’ll campaign from the right, a better chance of winning.
Maybe that’s why the powers that be are urging Smitherman to run. Seems to me we’ve seen this script before. It’s the same scenario that got disaster June Rowlands elected mayor all those years ago. Remember her?[rssbreak]
