What to know
- Nadia Guerrera and Diana Chan McNally are closely matched in Parkdale-High Park, according to polls from two research firms.
- Ausma Malik leads in Spadina-Fort York, while Shawn Allen leads incumbent Neethan Shan in Scarborough-Rouge Park.
- Forum Research polling tracks competitive races in Beaches-East York, York South-Weston, Toronto-Danforth, Scarborough Southwest, Toronto Centre and Scarborough North.
- Several contests feature open seats, longtime incumbents or former MPs vying for a place on Toronto city council.
With Toronto voters heading to the polls on Monday to elect their next city council, new polling offers a snapshot of several competitive ward races, including contests involving longtime incumbents, former MPs and candidates seeking to fill vacant seats.
New reports from Mainstreet Research examine three wards: Parkdale-High Park, Scarborough-Rouge Park and Spadina-Fort York.
Meanwhile, Forum Research has released polling figures for seven Toronto wards: Beaches-East York, York South-Weston, Parkdale-High Park, Toronto-Danforth, Scarborough Southwest, Toronto Centre and Scarborough North.
Mainstreet Research polls
Parkdale-High Park
The race in Parkdale-High Park remains closely contested, with separate polls from Mainstreet Research and Forum Research showing Nadia Guerrera and Diana Chan McNally leading the field.
According to Mainstreet Research, Guerrera has 35.2 per cent support, followed by Chan McNally at 29.2 per cent and Adam Pham at 15.5 per cent.
A separate Forum Research poll, conducted among 594 Parkdale-High Park voters, puts Guerrera at 32 per cent and Chan McNally at 29 per cent. Vanessa Raponi follows with 17 per cent, while Debbie King has 16 per cent.
The race is taking place following longtime councillor Gord Perks’ decision not to seek re-election, leaving the seat open.
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Spadina-Fort York
In Spadina-Fort York, incumbent councillor and Deputy Mayor Ausma Malik leads the field with 43.2 per cent support, according to Mainstreet Research.
Her closest challenger, Ian Cunningham, has 37.7 per cent, while Paul Nash trails with 9.2 per cent.
Scarborough-Rouge Park
In Toronto’s easternmost ward, Shawn Allen leads incumbent councillor Neethan Shan, according to Mainstreet Research.
Allen has 37.7 per cent support compared with Shan’s 28.5 per cent. Zakir Patel rounds out the top three with 12.9 per cent.
Shan was elected in a September 2025 by-election following the resignation of former councillor Jennifer McKelvie.
Mainstreet Research conducted its survey from Oct. 14 to 16, 2026, among 894 Toronto residents aged 18 across the three wards.
The survey used interactive voice response (IVR) technology, interviewing respondents by landline and cellphone.
The margin of error is plus or minus 6.1 percentage points for Parkdale-High Park (262 respondents), 5.7 points for Spadina-Fort York (292 respondents) and 5.3 points for Scarborough-Rouge Park (340 respondents), at the 95 per cent confidence level.
Forum Research polls
Beaches-East York
The Beaches-East York race has become competitive following incumbent councillor Brad Bradford’s decision to leave his seat to run for mayor.
According to Forum Research, former MP Nate Erskine-Smith has 32 per cent support. Natalie Johnson follows with 26 per cent, while James Dann has 22 per cent and Jennie Worden has 16 per cent.
The poll was based on a random sample of 1,084 Beaches-East York voters.
York South-Weston
Longtime councillor Frances Nunziata leads the race in York South-Weston with 34 per cent support, according to Forum Research.
Daniel DiGiorgio follows with 30 per cent, while Chiara Padovani has 28 per cent.
The poll was based on a random sample of 543 York South-Weston voters.
The race was close in the 2022 municipal election, when Nunziata narrowly defeated Padovani, receiving 10,077 votes to Padovani’s 9,983.
Toronto-Danforth
Toronto-Danforth has emerged as a closely watched contest following incumbent councillor Paula Fletcher’s decision to withdraw from the race and retire.
According to Forum Research, Sara Ehrhardt has 40 per cent support among 604 surveyed voters. Mary Fragedakis follows with 26 per cent, while Dianne Saxe has 22 per cent.
Saxe currently represents University-Rosedale on city council, while Fragedakis previously represented the former Ward 29, Toronto-Danforth, from 2010 to 2018.
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Scarborough Southwest
A close contest has emerged in Scarborough Southwest between incumbent councillor Parthi Kandavel and challenger Kevin Rupasinghe.
In a Forum Research poll of 538 voters, Kandavel has 41 per cent support, while Rupasinghe follows closely at 38 per cent.
Toronto Centre
Incumbent councillor Chris Moise holds a narrow lead in Toronto Centre, according to Forum Research.
Moise has 34 per cent support, followed by Daniel Tate at 30 per cent and Curran Stikuts at 25 per cent.
The race also features a shift in political endorsements. In the 2022 election, Moise received the endorsement of NDP MPP Kristyn Wong-Tam. This time, Wong-Tam has endorsed Stikuts.
Scarborough North
Former MP Shaun Chen leads the race in Scarborough North with 42 per cent support, according to Forum Research.
Incumbent councillor and Toronto Transit Commission (TTC) board chair Jamaal Myers follows with 34 per cent, while Han Dong has 12 per cent.
The poll was based on a random sample of 512 Scarborough North voters.
Chen served as the Liberal MP for Scarborough North from 2015 until 2026. He resigned in August, citing lingering health issues following a 2025 car accident.
