Bad news, Toronto. The 6ix could overtake Vancouver by becoming the most expensive housing market in Canada this year, a new housing report says.
The first three months of the year were “busier than expected,” according to real estate franchisor Royal LePage’s House Price Survey, which is predicting the aggregate price of a home in Canada will rise nine per cent in 2024, up from its previous forecast of 5.5 per cent.
Vancouver house prices remain the highest in the country for now, but Royal LePage is projecting a shift in the market in the second half of 2024, that could see Toronto prices surpass Vancouver’s.
In the first quarter of the year, the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) increased 5.2 per cent compared to the same period last year, to $1.1 million.
In Vancouver, the aggregate price of a house increased 3.4 per cent to just over $1.2 million.
“This sustained price appreciation is expected to close the gap between the country’s two most expensive real estate markets,” Royal LePage says.
Canada’s two largest urban centres, Toronto and Montreal, are now anticipated to clock the highest rate of home price appreciation this year, according to Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage.
The aggregate price of a home in the GTA is forecast to increase 10.0 per cent year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, with a predicted median price of $1.2 million by the end of 2024.
Montreal prices are expected to increase 8.5 per cent over the same period, peaking at $614,978 by year end.
These forecasts outpace price gains in Calgary, which was previously expected to see the greatest rise in home values this year, according to the report.
Royal LePage forecasts that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Vancouver area will increase 5.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year, for a median price of $1.2 million by the end of the year.
The Canadian housing market reached a critical tipping point in the first quarter of this year, after prices flatlined and then began to rise again, and the Canadian housing market has already recorded steady price increases and higher sales activity than the previous year, reported Royal LePage.
“Clearly, more and more buyers are motivated by the need to get ahead of rising home prices, rather than adopting the strategy of waiting for mortgage rates to fall,” Soper said.
Since July 2023, the Bank of Canada has held interest rates steady which prompted many homebuyers to move with haste in advance of what will likely be a more competitive spring market set to drive home prices even higher.
