What to know
- Liaison Strategies’ latest poll puts Olivia Chow ahead of Brad Bradford 46 per cent to 41 per cent in North York and 46 per cent to 43 per cent in Scarborough among decided and leaning voters.
- The margins have narrowed since the pollster’s Sept. 9 survey, when Chow led by 17 points in North York and 13 points in Scarborough.
- Chow holds a 60-27 lead downtown, while Bradford leads 54-33 in Etobicoke, according to the poll.
- Cost of living is the top unprompted concern citywide, while the pollster cautions that regional samples are smaller and turnout could play a significant role in the Oct. 26 municipal election.
Scarborough and North York are emerging as the most competitive battlegrounds in Toronto’s mayoral race, with Mayor Olivia Chow and Councillor Brad Bradford running much closer in those areas than elsewhere in the city.
Liaison Strategies’ latest poll has Chow leading Bradford 46 per cent to 41 per cent in North York and 46 per cent to 43 per cent in Scarborough among decided and leaning voters.
That compares with a 60-27 lead for Chow downtown and a 54-33 advantage for Bradford in Etobicoke.
David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, told Now Toronto the pattern reflects Toronto’s longer political history.
“Scarborough really was a competitive place last byelection. Same with North York, and I think we are seeing those trends really sprouting up again,” Valentin said.
The latest numbers also show movement from Liaison’s previous poll. On Sept. 9, Chow led Bradford 53-36 in North York and 51-38 in Scarborough. The latest survey puts those margins at five points and three points, respectively.
Liaison cautions that regional samples are smaller, meaning their margins of error are larger.
Valentin said the two areas are far from politically uniform.
“Scarborough is not homogenous,” he said, pointing to differences in voting rates, population groups and demographics across the area.
He said similar differences can be seen within North York, where neighbourhoods with comparable demographics can have very different political cultures and turnout.
The issues voters are naming may also help explain the geography of the race. Liaison found cost of living was the top unprompted issue citywide at 23 per cent, followed by housing affordability at 19 per cent, public safety at 17 per cent and traffic and congestion at 13 per cent.
In North York, cost of living was the leading concern at 27 per cent.
But Valentin cautioned against assuming the closest polling numbers necessarily mean the campaigns will concentrate all their efforts there.
Municipal elections tend to have lower and more uneven turnout than federal or provincial contests, he said, meaning campaigns must balance persuading voters with getting their existing supporters to cast ballots.
“There’s two different assignments: win over the most amount of people, and then get your base out to vote,” Valentin said.
With Bradford campaigning in North York and Chow in Scarborough on Wednesday, the two areas are already receiving attention from the candidates.
The municipal election is set for Oct. 26.
