What the mayor stands to win – and lose – for taking a hard line on the city workers’ strike.
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HE WINS
- Brownie points (and maybe a few votes) from the inner burbs for looking like he’s trying to hold the line on taxes.
- A reprieve, for now, from the braying on council’s right wing about how he’s supposedly soft on unions.
- Some $240 million dollars in sick leave savings – if the union gives in.
- Time (but not much) during the impasse to figure out how to get out of this mess without looking like he’s caving. Tick, tick, tick….
- Support from non-unionized city managers whose bonuses have already been suspended and cost-of-living increases put off.
HE LOSES
- The trust of city unions the mayor worked hard to win – and their support in the next election.
- The quality of public services. If you think morale’s low now, imagine how ugly it could get should workers be forced back to work and to make concessions.
- The fight against privatization of garbage services. Anti-union backlash is already reaching a boil in the electorate. The mayor’s detractors will point to Etobicoke.
- Political capital if the strike lasts more than two weeks. A fickle and ill-informed public (see the hysteria whipped up by the Star) can turn fast when the whiff of garbage hangs thick in the air.
- Pride weekend, Toronto’s biggest single tourist draw. Private haulers have been hired for the post-party cleanup. Will unions picket Pride events?
