What to know
- U.S. midterm elections saw Democrats make major gains, securing majorities in both the House and Senate, sparking optimism among Canadians about the future of cross-border trade.
- Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe and Ontario Premier Doug Ford welcomed the results, suggesting they could create an opportunity to reset Canada-U.S. relations and ease the ongoing tariff war.
- However, University of Toronto economics professor and trade expert Joseph Steinberg said Canadians shouldn’t expect tariffs to disappear anytime soon. He explained that President Donald Trump can use executive orders and veto legislation, making it difficult for Democrats to reverse his trade policies without significant Republican support.
- Steinberg said tariffs could remain for the rest of Trump’s administration, but a Democratic-controlled Congress may make Republicans more willing to challenge the president and discourage further attacks on Canada.
U.S. residents aren’t the only ones talking about Tuesday’s midterm election results, with Canadians also paying attention to their neighbour’s congressional shake-up, wondering one thing: “What could this mean for Canada?”
Tuesday’s election in the U.S. saw major changes for the country, with many states flipping to blue, ending with a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
It’s an election that had eyes on it across the border as well.
With a current tariff war between Canada and the U.S., the outcome of the elections could affect the future of both countries.
Canadian politicians welcome U.S. midterm ‘blue wave’
Many conversations online have Canadians excited about what a “blue wave” could mean for them.
Sask. Premier Scott Moe weighed in on the conversation on X, saying the results look like an opportunity for Canada.
“We now have an opportunity to reset our relationship with the U.S. and restore free and fair trade between our two countries,” he wrote in part.
Prime Minister Mark Carney previously told other news outlets that he was willing to wait out U.S. President Donald Trump’s time in office if it meant ending the trade war.
One Canadian X user added that they were surprised by how quickly that outcome may be.
“Who knew that waiting him out only meant until this week,” they wrote. “A blue wave hit America last night and may have smashed the tariffs.”
Even Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he was overjoyed with the result.
“I was doing cartwheels down the street…I was jumping up and down when the results were coming in,” he said in a press conference on Wednesday.
Ford added this could mean a big change for the ongoing tariff war.
“It’s not just a victory for the people in the U.S. I think it’s a victory across the world, and most importantly, it’s a victory for the people of Canada because they played a strong voice,” he said.
Will the midterm results have a major effect on trade tensions?
But does the congressional overhaul truly mean brighter opportunities for trade between the two countries?
University of Toronto professor of Economics and trade policy expert Joseph Steinberg thinks it’s “unlikely.”
“For Canadians who are hopeful that this is going to lead pretty quickly to an elimination of lots of the tariffs that President Trump has put on us, I think that’s extraordinarily unlikely.” Steinberg told Now Toronto.
He went on to say a blue wave may not necessarily mean too many changes for the relationship between both countries.
A reason for this, Steinberg said, was Trump’s tendency to use executive orders to push his policy.
“President Trump has used executive orders to conduct his policy to a much greater degree than previous presidents have, even himself in his first term in office,” Steinberg said.
“Congress will likely pass some kind of legislation to remove tariffs on Canada, but I think it’s pretty unlikely that Congress will get a large enough majority to override a presidential veto of that legislation.”
Steinberg added that the democrats would need to work hard to change or reverse any legislation placed by Trump.
“They will still need an awful lot of Republicans to go along with them in supporting tariff-removing legislation to the extent that the president wouldn’t be able to veto that.”
Steinberg emphasized the need for a majority vote in Congress when it comes to changing any policies.
“Congress only needs 50 plus one to pass legislation, as long as the president doesn’t veto it,” he explained. “To undo those authorities, to pass legislation to revoke all those authorities in the current context, they need a much stronger majority.”
Steinberg ultimately said Canadians shouldn’t get their hopes up.
“I think that tariffs are very likely to be with us for the remainder of the Trump administration,” he said.
Despite this, Steinberg said there is a silver lining – Trump may now be less likely to double down on attacking Canada.
“He’s going to have much less support from Republicans in government,” he explained. “Republicans may be less afraid of standing up to him, saying, ‘No, this is a terrible idea. This is not the way that we should go.’”
