What to know
- Ticket prices for the Croatia vs. Portugal match have surged, with some listings climbing into the thousands of dollars.
- Experts say the high demand is being driven by Toronto’s large Croatian and Portuguese communities, along with Cristiano Ronaldo’s star power.
- The knockout-stage matchup and Toronto Stadium’s limited capacity are also contributing to higher ticket prices.
- The July 2 match will be the final FIFA World Cup game played in Toronto before the tournament continues in the U.S., Mexico, and the last two games in Vancouver.
Fans looking to attend the FIFA World Cup Round of 32 match between Croatia and Portugal in Toronto should be prepared to pay a pretty penny.
Resale ticket prices have climbed into the thousands of dollars, making the Round of 32 matchup one of the tournament’s most sought-after games. According to sports economists, it’s the result of a perfect storm of star power, local demand and basic economics.
Toronto is uniquely positioned for this matchup
For Moshe Lander, senior lecturer in economics at Concordia University in Montreal and Canada’s preeminent sports economist, this explanation starts with a basic economic principle.
“It is supply and demand. At the end of the day, everything is supply and demand,” he told Now Toronto.
But he said Toronto itself is a major reason why this particular match has become a major hot ticket.
“I think that Toronto has one of the largest Croatian communities outside of Croatia, and also one of the largest Portuguese communities outside of Portugal and Brazil.”
That means demand isn’t just coming from travelling supporters. Thousands of passionate Croatian and Portuguese fans already live across the GTA, creating local interest before the rest of Canada and international visitors are even factored in.
Add in the fact that the match is a knockout game, meaning the losing team is eliminated, and demand quickly outpaces the roughly 45,000 seats available at Toronto Stadium.
‘Probably your last best chance to see him’: The “Ronaldo effect” is real
While dedicated soccer fans know the rosters inside and out, Lander says Cristiano Ronaldo attracts a much broader audience.
“For the marginal soccer fan, Ronaldo is certainly one of those people that certainly moves the dial,” he said.
Because Ronaldo has spent the last few years playing club soccer in Saudi Arabia, opportunities for North American fans to watch him in person have become rare.
“It’s likely his last World Cup; that’s going to be all the more special then for that casual fan, that this is probably your last best chance to see him.”
For many supporters, that possibility alone is enough to justify paying a premium.
Every round makes tickets more valuable
While Ronaldo is a major attraction, Pascal Courty, professor of economics at the University of Victoria, said the tournament itself naturally creates higher prices as it progresses.
“As we advance in the tournament, you get stronger teams, because the weaker teams are now eliminated. There are fewer games, so supply has reduced.”
As more countries are knocked out, there are simply fewer matches left to attend. At the same time, remaining teams often attract the bigger crowds since they feature star players and higher stakes.
Courty also points to Toronto Stadium itself.
“It’s a big city and a fairly small stadium compared to other cities, and there is strong support for the European teams.”
Dynamic pricing is working exactly as FIFA intended
Some fans have questioned whether soaring prices are fair, but Lander says FIFA’s dynamic pricing model is functioning exactly as designed.
In the past, organizers had to guess what fans would be willing to pay months before an event. If demand later exploded, ticket holders (not organizers) benefited from higher resale prices.
Now, dynamic pricing allows FIFA to adjust prices as demand changes.
“FIFA is going to try and make sure that the price of which they’re selling is the maximum the consumer is willing to pay, so that the money goes into their pockets and not the secondary market ticket scalper,” Lander said.
While some supporters argue the prices are making the World Cup inaccessible, Lander sees it differently.
“It’s hard to feel sympathy for people who say they’re priced out of the market. The number of tickets is fixed; the number of games is fixed; the number of fans is well in excess of that.”
FIFA’s resale marketplace works differently
The World Cup also has a unique ticketing system.
Rather than relying solely on third-party resale platforms, FIFA operates its own official resale marketplace where verified tickets can be transferred between buyers and sellers.
Courty says that gives fans a safer option than purchasing through unofficial channels.
“If you buy outside FIFA, you have to be extremely careful,” he said.
While established resale marketplaces offer buyer protections, he recommends avoiding purchases through unknown sellers or social media listings whenever possible.
Is it worth waiting?
Fans still hoping to attend Thursday’s match may be wondering whether prices will continue climbing or eventually fall.
Courty says there are no guarantees, but history suggests brokers sometimes reduce prices shortly before kickoff if they’re left holding unsold inventory.
“The general lesson for that is that first you visit all the marketplace, you look at your option on FIFA, you’re gonna get a verified ticket, so you are very safe.”
Lander says prices throughout the rest of the tournament will continue to depend on who advances.
“If the big teams, like Spain, England, France, continue to advance, that’s going to drive prices higher too,” he said.
“But if you start getting some of these upsets… that’s not going to move the needle, and you’re gonna see prices fall.”
Croatia will face Portugal at Toronto Stadium on July 2 in what will also be the final FIFA World Cup match played in Toronto.
For fans hoping to experience World Cup action on home soil, it’s the last chance to do so in Toronto. There will be two more Vancouver matches: Switzerland vs. Algeria on July 2, at 11 p.m. ET, and a Round of 16 match on July 7th.
