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Will cut for pork

Not sure if the mayor still has his ex-campaign co-chair, Nick Kouvalis, on speed dial. But it may be a good time to put in a call.

Maybe Nicky has an idea or two about how to get the mayor out of his current political predicament – or not.

Thanks to the Star we now know Kouvalis, the engineer of that gravy-train rhetoric Rob Ford rode into office, has turned coat. And is now helping the firefighters’ union fight the mayor’s cuts post Core Services Review by consultants KPMG. How embarrassing.

But let’s not get too caught up in the delicious irony. After all, Kouvalis is a hired gun now. He goes where the money takes him.

If anything, the Kouvalis turn suggests that there was probably more to that rumoured power-struggle between he the mayor’s big brother Doug, the councillor from ward 2, that led to Kouvalis’s surprise departure as chief of staff barely six weeks into Ford’s term last December.

Regardless, there may be no saving the mayor from the current crisis of his own making, that over massive cuts being proposed to city services. Or is there?

Another Forum Research poll, this one of some 13,000 Torontonians released Thursday (September 15), shows support for Ford plummeting. The poll says there’s little appetite for the rafts of cuts being proposed, even in Ford’s backyard in the burbs.

It also suggests the public is waking up to the fact the $774 deficit the mayor keeps waving around as justification for the rollbacks and takeaways, was created by the mayor’s budget bungling in the first place.

The political winds are gusting at City Hall. The clearest indication of that is how quickly some of the rats, er councillors, who’ve been backing the mayor’s austerity agenda for the better part of a year are now making noises in private and off the record to journalists about jumping the good ship lollipop.

But let’s not confuse the issues. The mayor’s dwindling public popularity doesn’t necessarily translate to an outright revolt of council on the cuts front.

Those among his council allies who have come out publicly against the mayor in recent days, namely councillors Jaye Robinson, Michelle Berardinetti and Karen Stintz, have broken with the mayor on redevelopment plans for the port lands, not the cuts.

Gotta figure a few councillors would start twitching on the mayor’s port lands dreaming given the competing development interests at work on the waterfront, and in municipal politics in general. More than a few councillors rely on contributions from developers whose own plans on the waterfront are now threatened by Ford’s port lands scheming.

But back to those poll numbers.

A closer look suggests there’s still a fair number of Torontonians who approve of Ford’s austerity agenda.

His support in the burbs, while shaken, is still hovering at between 40 and 50 per cent. Among 17 per cent of those interviewed in Forum’s poll say their impression of the mayor has actually improved. Another 29 per cent report their impression of the mayor has not changed at all. Taken together those two numbers add up to about half of all those polled.

Not to downplay the hole the mayor has dug for himself – 54 per cent of Torontonians asked in the Forum polling said they wouldn’t vote for Ford if an election were held tomorrow. But it also can’t be ignored that there’s a built-in bias in any poll.

Ask people if they believe city services should be cut, and nine times out of 10 you’re going to get no for an answer. Ask them if taxes should be raised to save city services, and you’re likely to get a different answer.

The mayor still holds a majority of votes on council, enough to ride out the storm over cuts. The only thing stopping him is hubris. More on that later.

It’s far from a given enough councillors in the mushy middle will make their break with the mayor over service cuts, even with the public sentiment tilting against the mayor.

There’s still a lot of room for horse-trading to be done.

So much has been thrown at the wall in the way of cuts, that “everyone’s finding their babies,” says Councillor Josh Colle.

In other words, those in the middle holding the balance of power may still be willing to vote with the mayor on the broad strokes in exchange for saving pet projects in their own ward. A rebuke of the mayor “is just not there,” says Colle. Sobering words from someone widely viewed as a linchpin of the mushy middle.

Word is the mayor’s executive, which meets Monday (September 19), may take a few cuts off the table to make the entire package a little more palatable when it goes to council September 26.

But another councillor I spoke with whose ward strongly supported Ford in the municipal election, is predicting a total meltdown of the mayor’s support. The service reductions and eliminations being proposed, everything from windrow clearing to reduced grass cutting in parks, this councillor says, are precisely the services people, even those who voted for Ford, cherish most.

Indeed. Even the view among some right-wing media types who support Ford has changed, but for reasons other than the cuts crisis.

Seems that Respect for Taxpayers slogan left the mistaken impression among some who voted for Ford, Newstalk’s 1010 radio host Jerry Agar among them, that there’d be no tax hikes under Ford, period.

Ford appeared on Agar’s show Friday (September 16), in one of those semi-regular interviews he’s taken to having with friendly media to reassure his base (Ford Nation?) whenever the shit is hitting the fan.

Much to Agar’s astonishment, the mayor said there will be a property tax increase in 2012 somewhere in the three per cent range.

Agar didn’t challenge the mayor on the whys and wherefores of how a property tax increase ever became part of the equation, but the reasons for that are simple.

The $1.7 billion in gravy the mayor suggested City Hall is drowning in during the campaign, is nowhere to be found. And the mayor also blew the surplus left by David Miller to pay for his zero tax increase and repeal of the vehicle registration tax in 2011.

But in the Tim’s he frequents for coffee and donuts, Agar said, the people he talks to understood Respect for Taxpayers to mean no more taxes, forever and ever, amen.

Ford made no such promise, of course – unless he was telling those he encountered on the BBQ circuit during the campaign something different than the line he was serving up to the media.

But the confusion on Agar’s part is instructive, and potentially very volatile for the mayor if more than the Ford supporters who happen to frequent the Tim’s Agar does have been left with the same misimpression. Talk about a confluence – Ford a casualty of the truthiness he so ably used to get elected.

Which brings me back to hubris. This would seem like a good time for the mayor to take stock, re-evaluate his governance style, maybe consider making a few concessions.

Ford doesn’t appear prepared, however, to deviate from his business as usual bullying. It’s been the trademark of his first year in office to blow off any and all suggestions of compromise.

During his appearance on the Agar show, the mayor trotted out the same tired lies about “lavish parties,” “finding the gravy” and “turning around this mess we’ve inherited.”

The mayor didn’t stop there, of course, piling on that those on council opposed to service cuts want to jack property taxes by 35 per cent.

The mayor’s intransigence, no, wilful ignorance, in the face of the current political crisis should be a warning to those in council’s mushy middle considering cutting a deal with Ford on the cuts front.

They may want to ask themselves how much longer they can continue lying to the public, and themselves, and get away with it.

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