What to know
- Chris Alexander has suggested he could reconsider his mayoral campaign if he does not gain more support in the coming weeks.
- Liaison Strategies principal David Valentin says Alexander’s supporters could be divided among other candidates, staying home or not casting a valid vote.
- Valentin says Alexander has faced challenges with name recognition and communicating specific municipal priorities.
- The latest Liaison Strategies survey has Olivia Chow at 50 per cent, Brad Bradford at 39 per cent and Alexander at 10 per cent among decided and leaning voters.
Chris Alexander has suggested he could leave Toronto’s mayoral race if he fails to gain more support, but his departure would likely have little impact on the overall contest, according to a political expert.
David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, tells Now Toronto much of Alexander’s support appears to come from voters who are not enthusiastic about Olivia Chow or Brad Bradford. Some could move to other candidates, he said, while others could stay home, spoil their ballots or leave them blank.
There has been speculation that Alexander’s support could largely move to Bradford because the two occupy similar political territory. Valentin said that interpretation overlooks the reasons some voters are backing Alexander in the first place.
“When we look at people’s perceptions of Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford, if they don’t like both of them, that is where we see Mr. Alexander doing the best,” he said.
Valentin also pointed to name recognition as a challenge for Alexander. Despite his experience as a former federal cabinet minister under Stephen Harper, he said many Toronto voters may still be unfamiliar with him.
He also argued that Alexander’s campaign has not communicated a clear enough list of municipal priorities.
“If you ask me to tell you five things, five specific things Mr. Alexander wanted to do, I couldn’t name one,” Valentin said.
By comparison, Valentin said Chow and Bradford have been more successful at communicating specific proposals. He cited Chow’s plans around TTC fares, affordable housing and bike lanes, as well as Bradford’s proposals involving police, bike lanes and St. Lawrence Square.
With advance voting approaching, Valentin said time is running short for Alexander to significantly change the trajectory of his campaign. He also noted that Alexander cannot actually remove his name from the ballot, even if he stops actively campaigning.
For Bradford, meanwhile, Valentin said the campaign is entering a different phase. After building support, Bradford now needs to win over voters who currently support Chow if he wants to become more competitive.
Valentin said that could be difficult because Bradford would need to give those voters a clear reason to switch.
For Alexander to gain significant ground, Valentin said the campaign would likely need a major opening created by mistakes from Chow or Bradford, followed by a strong enough campaign operation to capitalize on it.
“He had a definite window, and he had a really strong start, but then there was no follow-up… that’s been the detriment of Mr. Alexander’s campaign,” Valentin said.
He added that Alexander’s focus on foreign policy may not resonate as strongly with municipal voters looking for answers on everyday issues.
“I think people want to hear about sidewalks and potholes,” Valentin said.
The latest Liaison Strategies Toronto survey shows Chow at 50 per cent among decided and leaning voters, followed by Bradford at 39 per cent and Alexander at 10 per cent.
