What to know
- Three recent polls from Liaison Strategies, Mainstreet Research and Pallas Data show different snapshots of the Mississauga mayoral race.
- Liaison and Mainstreet put Bonnie Crombie ahead of Carolyn Parrish, while Pallas Data shows Parrish leading Crombie among decided and leaning voters.
- Alvin Tedjo remains within striking distance in all three surveys, with support ranging from 21 to 26 per cent.
- The polls were conducted at different times and among different sample sizes, with margins of error ranging from ±2.6 to ±4.4 percentage points.
As the Mississauga mayoral race heats up, three new polls show a tight contest between Carolyn Parrish and Bonnie Crombie, with the surveys producing different results.
With the municipal election just three weeks away, new surveys from Liaison Strategies, Mainstreet Research and Pallas Data show varying levels of support for the two leading candidates, while Alvin Tedjo remains close behind.
Liaison poll puts Crombie one point ahead
Liaison Strategies released its latest race tracker on Monday, showing Crombie with 30 per cent support among decided and leaning voters, followed closely by Parrish at 29 per cent.
Tedjo trails at 26 per cent.
Despite the close race, Parrish’s approval rating remains unchanged, according to the poll.
“Parrish’s approval has barely budged while the race around her has changed. Thirty-eight per cent approve of her performance, 42 per cent disapprove, and 20 per cent are unsure, exactly the same topline numbers as in August,” said David Valentin, principal of Liaison Strategies.
“Her lower vote share cannot simply be explained by a fresh drop in job approval.”
Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Mississauga residents from Oct. 2 to Oct. 4 using interactive voice response (IVR) technology.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, with higher margins of error for subsamples, including decided and leaning voters.
Mainstreet Research shows Crombie leading by three points
Meanwhile, a Mainstreet Research poll released Saturday also puts Crombie ahead, with 30.4 per cent support among all voters, excluding undecided respondents.
The survey puts a wider gap between the frontrunners, as Parrish follows with 27.6 per cent, putting Crombie three points ahead.
The survey was conducted from Sept. 22 to 25 among 1,404 Mississauga residents aged 18 and older using IVR technology.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points at a 95 per cent confidence level, with higher margins of error for subsamples.
Pallas Data puts Parrish in the lead
While the Liaison and Mainstreet polls show Crombie ahead, a new Pallas Data survey puts Parrish in front by a considerable amount.
The survey, released Saturday, shows Parrish with 34 per cent support among decided and leaning voters, followed by Crombie at 25 per cent and Tedjo at 21 per cent.
The survey was conducted on Sept. 30 and Oct. 1 among 503 eligible Mississauga voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points at a 95 per cent confidence level.
Pallas Data says the poll was completed Thursday night as the most recent mayoral debate was ending, meaning the results predate any potential reaction to the debate.
“It was a raucous debate, and we don’t know yet how voters took it,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “What this poll shows is where the race stood going in, with more than a quarter of voters undecided.”
