What’s going for…
Justin Trudeau: Marijuana – he’s in favour of legalizing it. And his pledge to grow the middle class it’s the second most important voter concern after the economy.
Stephen Harper: Money to burn. The HarperCons have been running a low-grade guerrilla ad campaign for months.
Thomas Mulcair: Seems to have shed its rep as inexperienced economic managers.
Elizabeth May: Great chops.
What’s going against…
Justin Trudeau: Conservative attack ads. Easy to forget he was ahead in the polls for months. Oh yeah, and his party’s support of C-51. Just plain ugly.
Stephen Harper: National insecurity agenda. And the fact that Conservatives are nowhere in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, which together represent about 35 per cent of seats in the House.
Thomas Mulcair: The NDP has spent the last year in opposition casting itself as the government-in-waiting. But its support is softest of the three major parties. Is theirs even the most progressive platform? (See Libs’ support for marijuana, taxes on the wealthiest Canadians).
Elizabeth May: The weight of greater expectations.
Big question
Justin Trudeau: Is he ready? It has to be asked. At 43, Trudeau would be the second-youngest PM ever elected. Joe Clark was 39, and we know what happened to him.
Stephen Harper: Is the jig up? Harper presides over a party divided. Signs of that before the race started: the high-profile defections of John Baird, James Moore and Peter MacKay.
Thomas Mulcair: Has he peaked too soon? Animus toward Harper will be enough to motivate the base, but the un-decideds are going to need more inspiration.
Elizabeth May: Will Greens be spoilers? The party could end up being the wrench in the works for both Libs and the NDP in a number of ridings where a 1 or 2 percentage points shift could mean seats for Conservative candidates.
X-factors
Justin Trudeau: Kathleen Wynne. It’s make or break for the Liberals in Ontario. Trudeau hasn’t spent the past two-plus years crisscrossing the country for nothing, rebuilding riding associations decimated by negligence and complacency.
Stephen Harper: Bank of Canada head Stephen Poloz. He mentions the “r” word and it’s
curtains. Also, that pesky ongoing Senate expense scandal is taking on a Nixonian air.
Thomas Mulcair: Things look favourable in the 416, with star candidates Linda McQuaig and Jennifer Hollett ahead in key races, but it’s a different story in the 905 where it’s uncharted territory for Mulcair.
Elizabeth May: Not outside BC where the party is noteworthy in only a handful of ridings.
Must do to win
Justin Trudeau: Cast himself as the change candidate. Revive some of that Trudeau
mystique.
Stephen Harper: Get ready for the post-Labour Day aerial bombardment. The HarperCons have made up their list of ridings where the NDP-Liberal vote split gives them room to come up the middle, which explains the PM’s recent visits to Eglinton-Lawrence and Etobicoke-Centre.
Thomas Mulcair: Hold on to Quebec, where the sovereignist Bloc, thought dead, is beginning to show signs of eating into NDP support. And run the table in Ontario.
Elizabeth May: Consider a new leader to take the party to the next level?
Trend line
Justin Trudeau: Sorta sideways.
Stephen Harper: Going down.
Thomas Mulcair: Could get slippery.
Elizabeth May: Nowhere to go but up.
enzom@nowtoronto.com | @enzodimatteo
