There’s no shortage of reasons to get antsy about David Mirvish’s plan to build three 80-storey Frank Gehry-designed mixed-use towers on King West.
Chief planner Jennifer Keesmaat offered quite a few recently, declaring the design too dense and architecturally “trite,” and warning that the plan on offer might not be what gets built. She also suggested that even with the proposed museum gallery space, the development’s social benefits aren’t commensurate with its scale.
Add to that list the demolition of four heritage buildings and possible wind and shadow problems.
Yes, there’s lots to worry about – but don’t put pressures on infrastructure high on the debit side of the ledger. Contrary to what many think, the area will in most regards easily absorb the new residents and employees of this supersized, 240-storey project.
Here’s the reality that defies most density skeptics: T.O.’s core is uniquely configured to accommodate the enormous growth it’s now undergoing between 2006 and 2011, downtown’s population increased by over 50 per cent. All that’s required to welcome more people is a few upgrades, most of which are already funded and under way.
Of course, what locals worry most about is the overburdened transportation network. But research shows that over 40 per cent of trips to work and elsewhere by those in dense new developments in the core are made on foot. Most destinations downtown are little more than a 15- to 20-minute walk away, and in winter there’s the underground PATH network. Likewise, the number of cars entering the centre core has not increased since the 70s as a consequence of congestion, so this problem isn’t likely to get worse.
According to a 2012 Colliers International report, buyers of new downtown condos are mostly young. As well, the condo market publication Urbanation says the average condo household has two people in a unit under 800-square feet. These people like walking to work and refuse to spend hours commuting, part of a growing trend across North America.
The real burden on the transit system is during rush hour, specifically toward downtown in the morning and outwards in the evening. But when those living downtown do use the system in rush hour, it is likely to be in the less busy direction. Similarly with overburdened streetcar services, most in the core will choose to walk during rush hour when a 10- to 15-minute trek will get them home. (If the Downtown Relief Line gets built, things will become even more manageable.)
As well, new office space is on stream seven large office towers and 5.4 million square feet of commercial development are announced or now under construction, according to CBRE, meaning even more downtown employment opportunities.
The stats show that the other large group moving south of Bloor is retired people – these residents aren’t tied to rush-hour schedules.
True, we don’t know exactly what demographic the tony Mirvish-Gehry King project is aiming for – or whether newcomers will bring their cars with them, adding to already congested streets south of Bloor. But based on trends, there’s lots of room for optimism.
When it comes to the water system, Toronto has actually seen a 10 per cent reduction in water use since 2005 because of conservation and a decrease in manufacturing. While some areas may need limited upgrades, recently expanded pumping and treating capacity means the system is not being stretched.
And the lights will surely stay on for thousands of new condo dwellers, given the fact Toronto Hydro has Energy Board approval for two large-scale upgrades. These include the plan for the new Bremner substation on the west end of the John Street Roundhouse. Then there’s the 2.4-kilometre tunnel recently bored west from Bayview to just north of Yonge and Bloor, carrying new electrical transmission cables to insure an adequate power supply. While the question of how we generate power is still up for debate, getting it into the core isn’t much of an issue.
Questions about pressures on soft services like libraries, hospitals, community centres and especially daycares and schools also arise. But in general, the core and adjacent neighbourhoods have more libraries and community centres per capita than most other parts of the city.
All in all, King West is one of the best places to welcome more people. You may quarrel with aspects of the Mirvish-Gehry plan, but along with other developments, it’s all part of keeping the core a zone of round-the-clock bustle.
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