What to know
- A new Liaison Strategies poll found Olivia Chow leads Brad Bradford 49 to 40 per cent among decided voters in Toronto’s mayoral race.
- Bradford has gained support since May, while the number of undecided voters has declined, suggesting the race is becoming more competitive.
- Chow’s approval rating has fallen to 50 per cent, its lowest level since September 2025, though it remains positive.
- Most Torontonians say hosting FIFA World Cup matches has been good for the city and support bringing more major international sporting events to Toronto.
As Toronto’s municipal election draws closer, a new poll suggests Mayor Olivia Chow remains in the lead, although challenger Brad Bradford is showing signs of gaining ground.
The survey, released Tuesday by Liaison Strategies, found that if the election were held today, Chow would receive 49 per cent of decided voters’ support, compared to 40 per cent for Bradford. Another 10 per cent said they would vote for someone else.
David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, said the race still belongs to Chow, but Bradford has momentum.
“She leads by nine points among decided voters and eight points among all voters. But the movement since May is toward Bradford. Among decided voters, Chow is essentially flat, moving from 50 per cent to 49 per cent, while Bradford is up from 37 per cent to 40 per cent,” Valentin said.
Among all voters, Bradford’s support has increased from 28 per cent in May to 32 per cent, while the share of undecided voters has fallen from 24 per cent to 20 per cent.
“So the question is not whether Bradford has momentum. He does. The question is whether he has enough time and runway to make the race genuinely tied,” Valentin added.
Chow’s approval rating slips but remains positive
Despite maintaining a comfortable lead in the race, Chow’s job approval rating has declined.
According to the poll, 50 per cent of respondents approve of the job she is doing as mayor, down from 54 per cent in May. While that marks her lowest approval rating since September 2025, it remains in positive territory.
When asked about the direction of the city, Torontonians were evenly split. Forty-six per cent said Toronto is moving in the right direction, while another 46 per cent said it is headed in the wrong direction. Eight per cent were unsure.
Bradford still faces a name recognition challenge
Although Bradford’s support is trending upward, Valentin said one of the biggest hurdles facing the councillor is that many voters still don’t know enough about him.
Among respondents, 29 per cent said they have a favourable impression of Bradford, while 23 per cent have an unfavourable opinion. Another 13 per cent were unsure, and 35 per cent said they are not familiar with him.
“That means nearly half the city either does not know Bradford or has not made up its mind about him. There is an opportunity in that, but also a risk. Voters are open to learning more about him, but he is not yet as defined as the mayor,” Valentin said.
Torontonians back hosting more major sporting events
The survey also found that most residents viewed Toronto’s role as a FIFA World Cup host city positively.
Sixty-one per cent of respondents said hosting World Cup matches has been good for Toronto, including 23 per cent who described it as “very good.” Twenty-nine per cent said it has been bad for the city.
Support for future international sporting events was also strong, with 63 per cent saying Toronto should host more major global competitions, while 25 per cent opposed the idea.
Liaison Strategies surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Toronto residents between June 28 and June 30, 2026, using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
