What to know
- A new Liaison Strategies poll puts Olivia Chow five points ahead of Brad Bradford, at 51 per cent to 46 per cent among decided and leaning voters.
- Chow leads among renters, while Bradford leads among homeowners and has the edge in Scarborough and Etobicoke.
- Chow’s approval rating stands at 52 per cent, with 43 per cent disapproving and five per cent unsure.
- Both candidates campaigned in Scarborough, with Chow promoting transit investments and the Scarborough East LRT, while Bradford highlighted proposals to reduce homeownership costs and city expenses.
With less than two weeks until Toronto’s municipal election, a new poll suggests the mayoral race is tightening, with incumbent Olivia Chow holding a five-point lead over Brad Bradford among decided and leaning voters.
The latest poll from Liaison Strategies puts Chow at 51 per cent support, compared with 46 per cent for Bradford, while three per cent of respondents said they would vote for another candidate.
The results mark a shift from Liaison Strategies’ Oct. 6 poll, which showed Chow leading Bradford by eight points, before candidate Chris Alexander dropped out of the race.
Renters favour Chow while homeowners lean toward Bradford
The poll found a divide in support based on housing tenure, with Chow leading among renters and Bradford ahead among homeowners.
“Housing tenure gives us a useful way to understand this contest. Among decided and leaning voters who rent, Chow leads 57 per cent to 40 per cent. Among homeowners, Bradford leads 50 per cent to 45 per cent,” said David Valentin, principal of Liaison Strategies.
Chow’s approval rating has also increased slightly since the Oct. 6 poll. The latest results show 52 per cent of respondents approve of her performance, while 43 per cent disapprove and five per cent are unsure.
Support also varies across Toronto’s regions. Bradford leads in Scarborough, with 50 per cent support compared with Chow’s 47 per cent. His lead is larger in Etobicoke, where he has 59 per cent support to Chow’s 38 per cent.
Meanwhile, Chow leads in Downtown, with 57 per cent support compared with Bradford’s 39 per cent. In North York, Chow holds a narrower lead of 50 per cent to Bradford’s 46 per cent.
The poll comes after Toronto’s advance voting period wrapped up on Oct. 11, with more than 222,000 eligible voters casting ballots, according to the city.
Liaison Strategies surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Toronto residents from Oct. 8 to Oct. 9, 2026, using interactive voice response technology. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Chow and Bradford campaign in Scarborough
With the election approaching and the latest poll showing a closer race, both candidates were campaigning in Scarborough on Tuesday, focusing on transit, housing and affordability.
Chow met with transit riders in Scarborough on Tuesday morning, reiterating her commitment to lowering transit costs and building the Scarborough East LRT.
She also pointed to the recently opened Scarborough busway as an example of her commitment to the area, while emphasizing a timeline for moving the LRT forward.
“I have already set aside the downpayment to build the LRT, shovels will hit the ground in my next term,” Chow said in a media release.
Meanwhile, Bradford met with realtors in Scarborough to highlight his proposals to make homeownership more affordable.
His campaign reiterated a plan to eliminate Toronto’s municipal land transfer tax on the portion of a principal residence’s value below the average Toronto home price, with the threshold adjusted annually to reflect market changes.
“On a home at the threshold, that’s about $18,000 back, and for most first-time buyers, who are buying condos well below the average, the tax disappears entirely,” Bradford’s campaign said in a news release.
Bradford is also renewing his pledges to freeze property taxes for one year if elected, reduce water bills by 25 per cent and conduct a line-by-line review of city spending.
Toronto’s municipal election is scheduled for Oct. 26.
