What to know
- Brad Bradford narrowly leads Olivia Chow in polls from Liaison Strategies and Mainstreet Research.
- Two other surveys from Pollara and Nanos Research put Chow ahead, with varying margins.
- Chow maintains strong support downtown and in Scarborough, while Bradford leads in North York and Etobicoke in several polls.
- With election day five days away, the latest surveys suggest a highly competitive race for Toronto mayor.
With just five days remaining until election day, a series of new polls is offering a mixed picture of Toronto’s mayoral race, with Brad Bradford and Olivia Chow trading leads in the final stretch of the campaign.
The latest poll from Liaison Strategies, released Tuesday, shows Bradford leading Chow 49 per cent to 47 per cent among decided and leaning voters.
The results mark a reversal from the previous survey, released Oct. 13, which gave Chow a five-point lead.
David Valentin, principal of Liaison Strategies, said neither campaign can treat the latest results as a clear lead, but the race is now “much less” comfortable for Chow.
Regional results point to a significant shift in North York, where Chow led 50 per cent to 46 per cent in the previous poll.
“Bradford now leads 56 per cent to 42 per cent. He also leads 63 per cent to 35 per cent in Etobicoke,” Valentin said.
Chow maintains a 55 per cent to 41 per cent lead in downtown Toronto, while Scarborough remains nearly evenly split, with Chow at 49 per cent and Bradford at 48 per cent.
The Liaison poll follows a survey released Tuesday by Mainstreet Research, which also found Bradford narrowly ahead of Chow, 48.9 per cent to 47.5 per cent among decided and leaning voters.
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Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Toronto residents from Oct. 18 to 19, 2026, using interactive voice response technology. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Two other polls put Chow ahead
A Pollara poll released Tuesday gives Chow a seven-point lead over Bradford, at 53 per cent to 46 per cent among decided and leaning voters.
Regionally, Chow leads in downtown Toronto, 64 per cent to 35 per cent, and Scarborough, 52 per cent to 47 per cent.
Bradford, meanwhile, holds the advantage in North York, 53 per cent to 46 per cent, and Etobicoke, 57 per cent to 42 per cent, according to Pollara.
Pollara surveyed 1,099 Toronto residents aged 18 and older who were eligible to vote from Oct. 13 to 19, 2026. The survey included 695 online panel respondents and 404 telephone respondents. No margin of error applies because the sample included an online panel.
A separate Nanos Research survey conducted with CP24 and CTV also puts Chow ahead, 49.8 per cent to 46.6 per cent.
According to Nanos, Chow leads in Toronto and East York, 58.2 per cent to 37.2 per cent, and Scarborough, 50.9 per cent to 46.3 per cent.
Bradford leads in Etobicoke and York, 52.9 per cent to 45.1 per cent, and North York, 54.1 per cent to 41.2 per cent.
Nanos Research surveyed 762 Toronto residents aged 18 and older from Oct. 15 to 18, 2026. Half completed the survey by telephone and half online, with results weighted by region, age and gender. The reported margin of error is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Voters will head to the polls in Toronto’s municipal election on Oct. 26.
