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Toronto may see a late fall this year – here’s what the forecast is saying

Due to higher-than-normal temperatures, fall colours may only come out later this month

Those ready to welcome in the fall season may be waiting longer than usual this year. (Courtesy: Karen Tharrington/Pexels)

What to know

  • Ontario’s fall colours are expected to arrive later than usual this year, with warmer temperatures keeping leaves green into late September.
  • Toronto’s Rouge and Don Valley areas are still showing little to no colour change, with the best viewing period currently forecast for Oct. 9 to Oct. 17, peaking around Oct. 12.
  • Shorter days and cooler temperatures trigger leaves to change colour, but mild conditions linked to a strong El Niño pattern are slowing the transition this year.
  • Popular spots for fall foliage include Rouge National Urban Park, the Don Valley, Darlington Provincial Park, Bronte Creek Provincial Park and Earl Rowe Provincial Park, though conditions should be checked before heading out.

Those ready to welcome in the fall season may be waiting longer than usual this year.

According to Ontario Parks, the province won’t be seeing the colours change around the same time, with higher temperatures causing the leaves to stay green until closer to the end of September.

For anyone hoping to catch the red, orange and yellow leaves without travelling too far from the city, the forecast is pointing to October as the best time to see the colours in the city.

Currently, there are several parks across the province that have reported predominantly green leaves, with only about a 10 per cent change in colour.

Toronto is expected to see the changes even later, with ontariofall.com reporting that the Rouge and Don Valley area is still showing no significant colour change.

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The autumn foliage tracking website predicted that peak fall colours are expected around Oct. 9 to Oct. 17. The site gives a confidence range of about seven days.

Ontariofall.com’s model currently places the season peak around Oct. 12.

According to Tree Canada, a non-profit charitable organization dedicated to planting and nurturing trees, shorter days and cooler temperatures cause chlorophyll to break down, revealing hidden underlying pigments. 

Environment Canada reported that a strong El Niño pattern is driving mild conditions in the province, leading to a slower transition into winter.

Unfortunately, due to these warmer-than-usual conditions, the colour change in leaves won’t be happening until later in the month.

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Ontariofall.com added that Toronto tends to see its fall colours later than areas farther north, meaning if other parts of Ontario are already beginning to change, it doesn’t necessarily mean the city is about to hit peak colour.

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For now, the forecast rates the coming weekends relatively low for fall-colour viewing, with Sept. 12–13 and Sept. 19–20 still expected to be mostly green around Rouge and the Don Valley.

Potential autumn watching spots

Once the right time rolls around, Torontonians and other residents in the province can go to nearby parks and trails to really take in the views.

The main spot for Toronto’s scenery watching is the Rouge National Urban Park, as well as along the Don Valley, where lush trees and greenery will turn orange and red over the next few weeks.

Other areas in the Greater Toronto Area and southwestern Ontario include:

  • Darlington Provincial Park on the Burk Trail Viewing Platform
  • Bronte Creek Provincial Park on the lookout or on its multiple trails
  • Earl Rowe Provincial Park on its Lookout Trail or the Meadowbrook and Trillium Woods campgrounds

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The forecasts are updated as new observations come in, so be sure to check conditions before making the trip to a viewing area.

Torontonians looking for the city’s best fall scenery may have to wait a few more weeks before heading out with their cameras.

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