What to know
- Toronto has recorded a mean October temperature of 12.3ºC, above the monthly average of 10ºC, according to Environment Canada.
- The city has received 36.5 millimetres of rain this month, compared with the usual 67 millimetres.
- Toronto could break its record for the warmest Oct. 29, with a forecast high of 22ºC surpassing the previous record of 21.7ºC set in 1946.
- Environment Canada expects above-average temperatures to continue for at least the next two weeks.
- Toronto’s unusually warm fall may be partly linked to El Niño, although a meteorologist says it is difficult to determine how much the phenomenon is contributing.
Torontonians might not have to complement their Halloween costumes with a jacket this year, as the city continues to be hit with warmer-than-normal temperatures this fall, and no cold air is in sight for now.
Sunsets are happening earlier, clocks are turning back one hour, and Halloween is here, but Torontonians’ winter jackets are still well stuffed in the closet, as temperatures remain in the double digits with some days reaching beyond 20ºC in the city this fall.
If you’ve been sensing this fall has been hotter than normal in Toronto, you are not wrong.
Peter Kimbell, Warning Preparedness Meteorologist with Environment Canada, tells Now Toronto this fall has in fact been warmer than normal in southern Ontario.
While the mean temperature for October is usually 10ºC, so far this month meteorologists have seen a 12.3ºC mean, with temperatures a couple degrees warmer than the average on most days.
In addition to being warm, Kimbell says this fall has also been extremely dry, as the city has seen little over half the normal amount of rain for this time of year.
“We’ve had 36.5 millimetres of rain this month. [The] normal for the month of October is 67,” he said. “We haven’t had any rain at all in Toronto for the last 10 [to] 12 days. The last rain was on the 16th of October.”
Toronto could hit hottest Oct. 29 on record
While this fall seems and has in fact been much warmer than usual, Kimbell says this October is still far from being the hottest one on record.
“It’s not even going to be in the top five warmest months of October. The warmest month of October was 2007,” he said. In October 2007, the mean temperature was 14.2ºC, about two degrees hotter than this year.
Despite multiple days with no rain, this October is also not going to enter the list of top five driest months on record. The driest October known so far was in 1938, with a total of 7.1 millimetres of rain according to the Canada Weather Stats.
On the other hand, Toronto might still be set to hit a record this month. With Thursday’s forecasts indicating a high of 22ºC in Toronto, Kimbell said this might be the hottest Oct. 29 the city has ever seen.
“We probably will break a record for the warmest Oct. 29, because we are forecasting a high today of 22ºC. The highest Oct. 29 we have on record was 21.7ºC in 1946,” he explained.
Super El Niño could impact Canada through next spring
Weather experts have confirmed that the current El Niño is one one strongest ever seen. The phenomenon usually occurs at this time of the year every three to five years, with the warming of the ocean surfaces in the Pacific Ocean.
According to the Weather Network, equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures have reached temperatures never before recorded.
For Toronto, the phenomenon is usually associated with warmer and drier conditions, with current forecasts suggesting it could reach its peak during late fall and early winter.
Read More
Kimbell says while the currently observed warm fall could be a reflection of the super El Niño, it can be hard to determine whether other circumstances might be behind the higher-than-normal temperatures.
“Certainly El Niño may be responsible for some of it, but normally this time of year we start seeing some plunges of cold air from the northwest across the country, and we’re not seeing a lot of that this year. And whether that’s because of El Niño or not, it’s hard to say,” he said.
What will the weather look like in the next few weeks?
While darker days might make it look like colder weather is approaching, colder weather doesn’t seem to be in the cards for Toronto.
Kimbell said warmer temperatures are expected to continue to hit the city at least for the next two weeks.
“Going forward, we have a continuation of the same… It remains pretty dry, and it remains warm,” he said.
“Even after today’s record temperatures, it’ll cool down tomorrow behind the cold front. But even tomorrow, it will have a high of 14ºC, which is still above average, and it remains above average for the rest of this month… and it remains above average probably for the next two weeks.”
Environment Canada’s forecast indicates Thursday will be cloudy, with a 60 per cent chance of showers late this afternoon and in the evening. Temperatures are expected to hit a high of 22ºC, and a low of 6ºC this evening.
Cooler temperatures will come on Friday, with a mix of sun and cloud throughout the day, and a high of 14ºC and a low of 3ºC.
Those looking to go trick or treating or partying for Halloween might not need to combine their outfits with a thick jacket this weekend. Saturday is expected to be sunny, with a high of 14ºC and a low of 5ºC.
Sunday could be even warmer, with a high of 16ºC expected during the day, and a low of 7ºC expected at night.
Next week’s forecast indicates rain might be coming towards the middle of the week. With showers expected to hit on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, temperatures are so far expected to remain in the double digits.
