Two Ontario destinations made Canada’s most overcrowded summer travel list

Canada is full of picturesque locations to visit that are popular with both locals and tourists alike, and a new ranking reveals which places are most likely to be overrun with visitors this summer. 

From Banff and Jasper to Niagara Falls and the Muskoka Region, there are no shortage of breathtaking places to visit across Canada. But as the country continues to be a popular place for travellers to explore, some of these spots have become, well, overcrowded. 

A new analysis by Canada Sports Betting reveals which Canadian destinations are expected to get crowded this season, including some of the country’s best-known mountain towns, beaches and natural attractions. 

Banff has the highest estimated chance of being overrun by tourists during summer 2026, followed closely by Cavendish, P.E.I., while Ontario’s Niagara Falls and Muskoka also landed in the top 10. 

The analysis examined 25 destinations and assigned each one an “overcrowding probability” based on four factors: the number of peak-season tourists per resident, year-over-year visitor growth, search demand for summer 2026 and short-term rental density. 

The platform weighted the tourist-to-resident ratio most heavily, accounting for 40 per cent of each destination’s score. Visitor growth represented 25 per cent, search demand made up 20 per cent and short-term rental density accounted for the remaining 15 per cent.

Here are the 10 destinations most likely to be overrun by visitors this summer, according to the study. 

Banff, Alberta: 75 per cent 

Banff topped the list with an estimated 75 per cent chance of being overcrowded. 

The Alberta destination welcomes approximately 4.23 million visitors annually despite having only about 8,000 residents. With more than half of those visits estimated to occur during the summer, the study calculated a peak-season ratio of 275 tourists per resident. 

Banff has introduced measures meant to manage its enormous visitor volume, including reservations for Moraine Lake and restrictions at several popular locations. However, the study says demand continues to rise. 

Cavendish, Prince Edward Island: 72 per cent

Cavendish tied Banff with an estimated 275 summer visitors for every permanent resident.

The small P.E.I. community has roughly 700 year-round residents but receives approximately 350,000 visitors annually, with 55 per cent arriving during the summer. 

Unlike Banff, Cavendish currently has no visitor tax, entry cap or formal system designed to manage the crowds. 

Tofino, British Columbia: 54 per cent

Tofino ranked third with a 54 per cent chance of being overrun. 

The coastal destination receives approximately 500,000 visitors annually compared with its population of around 2,500. That works out to an estimated 110 tourists per resident during peak season. 

The study says Tofino’s visitor numbers grew 4.2 per cent year over year, despite short-term rental restrictions and previously documented concerns about overtourism. 

Canadian Rockies: 51 per cent

The broader Canadian Rockies region ranked fourth, with 5.48 million visitors spread across a population of approximately 20,000. 

That produces an estimated peak-season ratio of 143 tourists for every resident. 

The study treated the Canadian Rockies as a destination separate from Banff, covering the wider mountain corridor across Alberta and B.C.

Whistler, British Columbia: 47 per cent

Whistler receives around 3.5 million annual visitors while being home to about 14,000 residents. 

With an estimated 45 per cent of those visits happening during the summer, the study calculated a ratio of 112 tourists per resident. Visitor numbers are also reportedly growing by 3.2 per cent year over year. 

Canmore, Alberta: 37 per cent

Often used as a gateway to nearby Banff, Canmore welcomes 2.2 million visitors annually despite having a  population of just around 17,000. 

Its estimated summer ratio stands at 62 tourists per resident. The town also recorded 5.8 per cent year-over-year visitor growth, the fastest increase among the destinations in the top 10. 

Niagara Falls, Ontario: 35 per cent

Niagara Falls is the highest-ranking Ontario destination on the list. The city receives an estimated 13 million visitors annually, including about 4.55 million during the summer. 

Compared with its population of roughly 92,000, that creates a peak season ratio of 50 visitors for every resident. 

Muskoka, Ontario: 26 per cent

Muskoka and Ontario’s cottage country ranked eighth, with a 26 per cent chance of being overcrowded.

Approximately 62 per cent of Muskoka’s yearly visits take place between June and August—the highest summer concentration of any destination examined in the study.

That amounts to an estimated 1.98 million summer visitors compared with approximately 65,000 year-round residents, or about 30 tourists per resident.

Laurentians and Mont-Tremblant, Quebec: 24 per cent

The Laurentians and Mont-Tremblant receive approximately 7.34 million annual visitors.

An estimated 3.3 million arrive during the summer, compared with a regional population of about 200,000. The study calculated a peak ratio of 16 tourists per resident and noted visitor growth of 3.8 per cent year over year.

Jasper, Alberta: 23 per cent

Jasper rounded out the ranking despite experiencing a dramatic decline in tourism following the devastating July 2024 wildfire.

According to the study, visitor numbers fell 43.6 per cent, with Parks Canada recording approximately 1.4 million visits against a town population of roughly 5,200. Even with that drop, Jasper’s underlying peak-season ratio remained high at an estimated 140 tourists per resident.

The study expects visits to rebound in 2026, potentially pushing Jasper higher in future overcrowding rankings. That return would also be an important part of the community’s economic recovery, illustrating the difficult balance between welcoming visitors back and managing the pressure tourism places on a small rebuilding town.