What to know
- Trump’s trade war with Canada has become an issue in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections.
- Democratic candidates are using the trade war to criticize Trump’s policies, which have increased costs for Canadians and Americans.
- Democrats are expected to regain control of the House of Representatives, potentially giving them more power to challenge Trump’s trade policies and putting pressure on Republicans.
- Canadians should watch crucial Senate races in Michigan and Texas, which could determine the direction of the midterm elections as a whole.
The United States midterm elections are always a crucial tug-of-war between Democrats and Republicans halfway through a sitting president’s term, one that Canadians don’t usually care about.
But not this time.
Canada has been a convenient punching bag for President Donald Trump since he took office in late 2024. January 2025 was the first time he took aim at his northern neighbours, floating 25 per cent tariffs and the idea of making Canada a 51st state. He made good on his threats just a few weeks later.
Read More
- ‘This is outrageous,’ Canadians react to Donald Trump claiming Canada is ‘considering’ becoming the 51st state
- ‘Wants the benefits of being a State’: Trump hits back after Carney suspends trade talks
- Trump says Canada would ‘cease to exist’ without the U.S., sparking heated reactions online
- ‘Our country is not for sale,’ Canadian politicians are slamming Trump’s remarks on Canada joining the U.S.
The trade war has raised the cost of living for both Canadians and Americans, which Democratic candidates vying for seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate have capitalized on. Candidates in several states (including Michigan and New Hampshire) have name-dropped the trade war in Canada in their campaigns.
Even though Canada has popped up as a topic in the midterm elections, how much is the trade war weighing on Americans’ votes at the polls tonight and what should Canadians be looking for regarding the election results tonight?
Does the trade war matter to Americans?
Ryan Hurl, a political science professor at the University of Toronto, says the trade war feeds into two larger issues: the rising cost of living and witnessing Trump treat an ally so poorly. Although, he says the trade war is likely a more prominent issue for states bordering Canada, such as Michigan.
He cites the Iran war as a concern that’s top of mind for voters from both sides of the aisle, since it has skyrocketed gas prices in both the U.S. and Canada.
“It’s probably one of the most unpopular decisions a president has ever made, [Trump’s] almost unified the country,” Hurl explains.
“Obviously, people can connect the dots between the Iran war and the cost of living, but they can also connect the dots between the cost of living and the trade war as well.”
But if the Democrats regain a majority in Congress like expected, then they could have a shot at reigning in some of Trump’s decisions on international trade, a power that “has been delegated to the president over the decades.”
What should Canadians look for in the election results?
In general, Hurl says, a good election for the Democrats is going to put pressure on Trump and will also support Republicans who have been hiding the extent of their disapproval of the president’s approach to trade.
Hurl is confident, with “close to 99 per cent certainty” that the Democratic Party will take back the House of Representatives, aka Congress.
In terms of the Senate races, he points to two key states: Michigan and Texas. In Texas, James Talarico is running against Ken Paxton in an attempt to flip the state for the first time since 1993.
As for Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed is running against Mike Rogers.
“If Democrats are finally winning a seat in Texas in probably more than 30 years, it’s going to be a very good night for them, and they’ll be certain to take both the House and the Senate,” Hurl predicts.
“But if El-Sayed’s campaign is not as successful as most polls suggest, then I think it will be both a disaster for the polling industry, and perhaps a disappointing night for the Democrats.”
